{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b321bc06-871f-4667-b431-c5c22710101c", "symbol": "FAMAMW", "name": "Fineco AM MSCI World Metals and Mining UCITS ETF A EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.16, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 13.453, "architecture_energy": 9.305, "architecture_maturity": 24.634, "architecture_confidence": 63.773, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.4, "rotation_up": 32.66, "upward_expansion": 20.4, "deceleration": 65.89, "rotation_down": 32.82, "downward_expansion": 34.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 173.639333, 172.459637, 175.243143, 175.525592 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 186.669998, "trend_reference": 175.514668, "distance_from_trend": 0.063558, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 125.329757, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.489431, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.959977, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.086428, "excess_performance": -0.084464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063558, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058699, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.489431, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039616, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.0196, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129768, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086428, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.629137, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2923, "relative_activity": 2.172346, "balance": 0.629137, "dry_up": 1.142098, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057172, "annualized_volatility": 0.350809, "from_high_reference": -0.059455, "from_low_reference": 0.666101 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 175.514668, "fair_value_reference": 125.329757, "structural_low": 148.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.031082, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.069961, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.159614, "worst_return": -0.037753, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.086915, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.022886, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.086915, "worst_return": 0.086915, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.075201, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.090742, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.075201, "worst_return": 0.075201, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079894, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041762, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.144766, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018996, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07346, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 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"relative_strength": 6.252685, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.556243, "energy": 29.036679, "activity_lines": [ 181.895335, 181.486908, 179.024762, 175.864237 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 177.820007, "volume": 905, "typical_volume": 2144.15, "trend": 170.383334, "fair_value": 122.425911, "relative_strength": 0.958804, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.076091, "energy": 21.989, "activity_lines": [ 180.566671, 180.791819, 179.051143, 176.433485 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 171.830002, "volume": 103, "typical_volume": 1900.6, "trend": 171.421668, "fair_value": 122.853603, "relative_strength": 0.165706, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.529787, "energy": 11.944184, "activity_lines": [ 177.411337, 179.116002, 178.467667, 176.526818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 171.520004, "volume": 193, "typical_volume": 1795.6, "trend": 172.369668, "fair_value": 123.290077, "relative_strength": -3.248089, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.314859, "energy": 11.706197, "activity_lines": [ 174.709337, 177.649275, 177.85462, 176.533162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 166.179993, "volume": 1402, "typical_volume": 1738.75, "trend": 173.068334, "fair_value": 123.663731, "relative_strength": -6.125308, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.272991, "energy": 31.831566, "activity_lines": [ 171.316, 175.364546, 176.769762, 176.133829 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 161.0, "volume": 810, "typical_volume": 1554.55, "trend": 173.483001, "fair_value": 124.007128, "relative_strength": -7.991965, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.896839, "energy": 54.941245, "activity_lines": [ 167.050666, 172.289819, 175.256714, 175.355226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 169.580002, "volume": 1365, "typical_volume": 1424.85, "trend": 174.072668, "fair_value": 124.398795, "relative_strength": -3.242744, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.462991, "energy": 49.533951, "activity_lines": [ 167.020667, 171.170183, 174.713524, 175.10342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 168.580002, "volume": 1049, "typical_volume": 1311.9, "trend": 174.633668, "fair_value": 124.798603, "relative_strength": -4.791196, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.836437, "energy": 45.44237, "activity_lines": [ 167.206667, 170.06491, 174.108858, 174.749054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 186.669998, "volume": 2923, "typical_volume": 1345.55, "trend": 175.514668, "fair_value": 125.329757, "relative_strength": 1.959977, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.453207, "energy": 9.30461, "activity_lines": [ 173.639333, 172.459637, 175.243143, 175.525592 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }