{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3226e8b-cb03-4b8f-9614-cdf03b0cb35b", "symbol": "PEG", "name": "Petards Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 84.479, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.954, "architecture_energy": 18.067, "architecture_maturity": 15.707, "architecture_confidence": 66.032, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.0, "rotation_up": 31.44, "upward_expansion": 16.54, "deceleration": 43.17, "rotation_down": 22.59, "downward_expansion": 52.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1025, 0.100227, 0.100571, 0.102849 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.1025, "trend_reference": 0.1045, "distance_from_trend": -0.019139, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.080021, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.280916, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.379686, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.051235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019139, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026187, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.280916, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070095, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013797, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100633, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.208727, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 236275, "relative_activity": 1.627676, "balance": 0.208727, "dry_up": 0.698878, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090432, "annualized_volatility": 0.269818, "from_high_reference": -0.18, "from_low_reference": 0.464286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1045, "fair_value_reference": 0.080021, "structural_low": 0.09, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.037566, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.160494, "worst_return": -0.212121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.021739, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.025422, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.137931, "worst_return": -0.191111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.126957, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.133158, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.269231, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.24, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.250433, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.212121, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.129032, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087719, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015152, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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0.094167, 0.096045, 0.101667, 0.103489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.1025, "volume": 92339, "typical_volume": 164303.7, "trend": 0.1045, "fair_value": 0.079252, "relative_strength": 2.7303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.240309, "energy": 26.481853, "activity_lines": [ 0.096833, 0.096818, 0.101345, 0.103371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1025, "volume": 61433, "typical_volume": 141179.5, "trend": 0.1045, "fair_value": 0.079444, "relative_strength": 1.600861, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.256859, "energy": 20.011705, "activity_lines": [ 0.099, 0.097636, 0.101083, 0.103242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1025, "volume": 33412, "typical_volume": 133362.4, "trend": 0.1045, "fair_value": 0.079636, "relative_strength": 0.186487, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.641265, "energy": 18.142723, "activity_lines": [ 0.100667, 0.0985, 0.100869, 0.103113 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1025, "volume": 74679, "typical_volume": 133754.4, "trend": 0.104583, "fair_value": 0.079829, "relative_strength": -1.123553, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.146392, "energy": 20.163594, "activity_lines": [ 0.101833, 0.099364, 0.10069, 0.102984 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1025, "volume": 236275, "typical_volume": 145160.95, "trend": 0.1045, "fair_value": 0.080021, "relative_strength": -1.379686, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.953739, "energy": 18.066865, "activity_lines": [ 0.1025, 0.100227, 0.100571, 0.102849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }