{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b322b82e-6812-408f-9c42-41c81bec7c83", "symbol": "OMER", "name": "Omeros Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.937, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 17.693, "architecture_energy": 19.656, "architecture_maturity": 29.77, "architecture_confidence": 56.305, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.82, "rotation_up": 54.27, "upward_expansion": 22.03, "deceleration": 39.29, "rotation_down": 12.93, "downward_expansion": 29.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.509333, 10.655818, 10.907095, 11.123161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.25, "trend_reference": 11.371833, "distance_from_trend": 0.16516, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.473846, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.046697, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.891692, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.179875, "excess_performance": -0.007578, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.16516, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018965, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.046697, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283224, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.188917, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.303607, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.179875, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.613212, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6276767, "relative_activity": 0.797288, "balance": 0.613212, "dry_up": 0.919809, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148576, "annualized_volatility": 0.700521, "from_high_reference": -0.249292, "from_low_reference": 2.40617 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.371833, "fair_value_reference": 6.473846, "structural_low": 6.7023, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.082228, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.050036, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.781863, "worst_return": -0.571337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.663816, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.633908, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.18956, "worst_return": -0.515675, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.603626, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.487502, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.767386, "worst_return": -0.609725, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.16, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.467938, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.145604, "worst_return": -0.65771, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.237681, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137295, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.211538, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", 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"close": 9.79, "volume": 5640331, "typical_volume": 7450199.3, "trend": 11.497833, "fair_value": 6.367949, "relative_strength": -4.565675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.475918, "energy": 26.68851, "activity_lines": [ 9.718667, 9.701455, 10.633857, 10.97828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.84, "volume": 9909789, "typical_volume": 7752577.6, "trend": 11.3465, "fair_value": 6.416474, "relative_strength": 13.237744, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.883134, "energy": 13.958357, "activity_lines": [ 10.484667, 10.053909, 10.704881, 11.000355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.25, "volume": 6276767, "typical_volume": 7872647.1, "trend": 11.371833, "fair_value": 6.473846, "relative_strength": 18.891692, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.693072, "energy": 19.655759, "activity_lines": [ 11.509333, 10.655818, 10.907095, 11.123161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }