{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b328f7b0-622f-41d7-b300-547319421bf9", "symbol": "AVR", "name": "Anteris Technologies Global Corp.", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.362, "architecture_energy": 29.724, "architecture_maturity": 70.331, "architecture_confidence": 93.721, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.91, "rotation_up": 21.28, "upward_expansion": 55.86, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 38.04, "downward_expansion": 19.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.565333, 12.362909, 11.952, 11.126946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.55, "trend_reference": 10.117, "distance_from_trend": 0.141643, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.405, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068924, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 26.061326, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.560811, "excess_performance": 0.497105, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.141643, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.250247, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068924, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.26957, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.260613, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025346, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.560811, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.150505, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43853, "relative_activity": 0.587383, "balance": 1.150505, "dry_up": 1.428699, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128971, "annualized_volatility": 0.623584, "from_high_reference": -0.253394, "from_low_reference": 1.221154 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.117, "fair_value_reference": 12.405, "structural_low": 7.13, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.007706, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.015552, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.415, "worst_return": -0.102273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.148379, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.171136, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.736811, "worst_return": -0.200408, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.155556, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.264233, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.333728, "worst_return": -0.541051, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.628866, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.174803, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.317045, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.466667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07651, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.947023, "energy": 65.299801, "activity_lines": [ 13.89, 13.415636, 11.647095, 10.699591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.56, "volume": 92428, "typical_volume": 63987.25, "trend": 9.726333, "fair_value": 12.587949, "relative_strength": 38.272514, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.416112, "energy": 50.222232, "activity_lines": [ 13.155333, 13.218364, 11.752619, 10.826409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.37, "volume": 223086, "typical_volume": 72753.75, "trend": 9.848667, "fair_value": 12.526218, "relative_strength": 34.375519, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.34352, "energy": 33.887378, "activity_lines": [ 12.461333, 12.934545, 11.826905, 10.932452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.29, "volume": 67290, "typical_volume": 73300.7, "trend": 9.976667, "fair_value": 12.463974, "relative_strength": 28.703574, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.184869, "energy": 30.282766, "activity_lines": [ 11.870667, 12.610364, 11.882286, 11.025441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.55, "volume": 43853, "typical_volume": 74658.3, "trend": 10.117, "fair_value": 12.405, "relative_strength": 26.061326, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.362105, "energy": 29.724443, "activity_lines": [ 11.565333, 12.362909, 11.952, 11.126946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }