{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b32e9c58-5037-4c32-b1c8-899324ea2024", "symbol": "PSFJ", "name": "PACER SWAN SOS FLEX (JULY) ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.154, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.374, "architecture_energy": 73.278, "architecture_maturity": 76.576, "architecture_confidence": 64.475, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.81, "rotation_up": 60.0, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.4, "rotation_down": 26.97, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.39722, 35.253042, 35.013139, 34.62088 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 35.9502, "trend_reference": 34.159887, "distance_from_trend": 0.05241, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.445022, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.220926, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.272439, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.075066, "excess_performance": -0.050559, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05241, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022411, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.220926, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003119, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042724, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00413, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075066, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.61222, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102175, "relative_activity": 3.143367, "balance": 3.61222, "dry_up": 1.979345, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008243, "annualized_volatility": 0.068725, "from_high_reference": -0.000828, "from_low_reference": 0.140856 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.159887, "fair_value_reference": 29.445022, "structural_low": 32.07, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.010942, "positive_rate": 0.722222, "directional_follow_through": 0.722222, "median_excess_return": -0.003527, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.042391, "worst_return": -0.039931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.031519, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.014889, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.087756, "worst_return": -0.061151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.074866, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.031049, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.109142, "worst_return": 0.046864, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 33.951277, "fair_value": 29.224757, "relative_strength": -3.225197, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.872709, "energy": 83.788563, "activity_lines": [ 35.12082, 35.063765, 34.718749, 34.357184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.9154, "volume": 30802, "typical_volume": 26671.7, "trend": 34.005463, "fair_value": 29.293578, "relative_strength": -2.977186, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.240057, "energy": 62.061475, "activity_lines": [ 35.056887, 35.048276, 34.782928, 34.419385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.2542, "volume": 41702, "typical_volume": 27692.0, "trend": 34.07577, "fair_value": 29.367111, "relative_strength": -2.96769, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.073824, "energy": 65.632039, "activity_lines": [ 35.11886, 35.091016, 34.870596, 34.499949 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.9502, "volume": 102175, "typical_volume": 32504.95, "trend": 34.159887, "fair_value": 29.445022, "relative_strength": -4.272439, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.373957, "energy": 73.277561, "activity_lines": [ 35.39722, 35.253042, 35.013139, 34.62088 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }