{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b33e5e0e-fde2-4301-b483-01a785c398af", "symbol": "MHK", "name": "Metal Hawk Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.182, "architecture_energy": 27.142, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.129, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.35, "rotation_up": 38.16, "upward_expansion": 18.55, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 20.52, "downward_expansion": 54.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0702, 0.065864, 0.066802, 0.070917 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.07, "trend_reference": 0.078817, "distance_from_trend": -0.111863, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.166913, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.580621, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.805869, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.195402, "excess_performance": -0.259108, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111863, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179847, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.580621, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035602, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.338059, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.243134, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.195402, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.211719, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 355730, "relative_activity": 1.318571, "balance": 0.211719, "dry_up": 0.69465, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110989, "annualized_volatility": 0.781195, "from_high_reference": -0.631579, "from_low_reference": 0.458333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.078817, "fair_value_reference": 0.166913, "structural_low": 0.048, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.025641, "positive_rate": 0.516129, "directional_follow_through": 0.451613, "median_excess_return": 0.018493, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 1.321429, "worst_return": -0.347826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.098244, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.088192, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.867925, "worst_return": -0.315217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.115385, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.088339, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.61194, "worst_return": -0.474286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.361538, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.234694, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.242857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031915, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 3.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": 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"down", "direction": -63.13216, "energy": 55.761195, "activity_lines": [ 0.0584, 0.06, 0.067433, 0.07394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.071, "volume": 48733, "typical_volume": 352865.55, "trend": 0.082633, "fair_value": 0.168064, "relative_strength": -35.838993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.771252, "energy": 43.951721, "activity_lines": [ 0.0626, 0.061509, 0.067248, 0.073116 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.07, "volume": 340954, "typical_volume": 293927.45, "trend": 0.081633, "fair_value": 0.167615, "relative_strength": -32.887036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.212202, "energy": 23.778291, "activity_lines": [ 0.0658, 0.062964, 0.067033, 0.072301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0705, "volume": 4206, "typical_volume": 278618.05, "trend": 0.080317, "fair_value": 0.167234, "relative_strength": -32.601232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.828533, "energy": 32.961105, "activity_lines": [ 0.068833, 0.064527, 0.066919, 0.071583 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.07, "volume": 355730, "typical_volume": 269784.45, "trend": 0.078817, "fair_value": 0.166913, "relative_strength": -33.805869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.182317, "energy": 27.141784, "activity_lines": [ 0.0702, 0.065864, 0.066802, 0.070917 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }