{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3422c69-ccdf-4693-8965-1057549450a3", "symbol": "HEDF", "name": "WisdomTree Europe Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.678, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.83, "architecture_energy": 72.59, "architecture_maturity": 32.341, "architecture_confidence": 80.697, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.66, "rotation_up": 63.24, "upward_expansion": 89.88, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 24.62, "downward_expansion": 14.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.225334, 32.109001, 31.714548, 31.294398 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 32.720001, "trend_reference": 30.896334, "distance_from_trend": 0.059025, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.7025, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.225353, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.548064, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.068757, "excess_performance": -0.102135, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059025, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02918, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.225353, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024273, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065481, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010424, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068757, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.033432, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 884, "relative_activity": 0.816515, "balance": 9.033432, "dry_up": 0.236226, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016257, "annualized_volatility": 0.164264, "from_high_reference": -0.000305, "from_low_reference": 0.189602 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.896334, "fair_value_reference": 26.7025, "structural_low": 27.504999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.007012, "positive_rate": 0.606061, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": -0.006934, "regime_survival": 0.69697, "best_return": 0.077922, "worst_return": -0.10122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.011244, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.01458, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.116358, "worst_return": -0.088779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04514, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.024644, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.114899, "worst_return": -0.149476, "sufficient": true }, { 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1713.15, "trend": 30.502333, "fair_value": 26.399936, "relative_strength": -7.204757, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.135298, "energy": 82.279192, "activity_lines": [ 32.092667, 31.756182, 31.117715, 30.844516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.48, "volume": 82, "typical_volume": 1616.95, "trend": 30.571333, "fair_value": 26.460833, "relative_strength": -8.849187, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.29119, "energy": 69.337178, "activity_lines": [ 31.930667, 31.765637, 31.193143, 30.907592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.91, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 1594.0, "trend": 30.651, "fair_value": 26.519455, "relative_strength": -6.13603, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.50817, "energy": 50.733177, "activity_lines": [ 31.904334, 31.830091, 31.306572, 30.993957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.060001, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 1231.7, "trend": 30.737334, "fair_value": 26.575865, "relative_strength": -5.376992, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.996648, "energy": 49.469238, "activity_lines": [ 31.928667, 31.907455, 31.432786, 31.08486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.075001, "volume": 34, "typical_volume": 1049.55, "trend": 30.809834, "fair_value": 26.636827, "relative_strength": -5.842757, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.502621, "energy": 45.575388, "activity_lines": [ 31.970667, 31.958364, 31.54931, 31.171162 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.720001, "volume": 884, "typical_volume": 1082.65, "trend": 30.896334, "fair_value": 26.7025, "relative_strength": -6.548064, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.830457, "energy": 72.590469, "activity_lines": [ 32.225334, 32.109001, 31.714548, 31.294398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }