{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3453e12-8097-4da2-a265-19c070912c4b", "symbol": "SPGI", "name": "S&P Global Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 17.457, "architecture_energy": 14.783, "architecture_maturity": 12.159, "architecture_confidence": 53.891, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.14, "rotation_up": 42.71, "upward_expansion": 44.8, "deceleration": 42.67, "rotation_down": 26.69, "downward_expansion": 10.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 420.003333, 419.239954, 411.904473, 410.642651 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 408.19, "trend_reference": 417.140786, "distance_from_trend": -0.021457, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 438.612526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.069361, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.509321, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.016915, "excess_performance": -0.142539, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021457, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049497, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.069361, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014819, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185093, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0579, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016915, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.562864, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10154675, "relative_activity": 0.995505, "balance": 0.562864, "dry_up": 0.985785, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069672, "annualized_volatility": 0.324636, "from_high_reference": -0.251462, "from_low_reference": 0.131652 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 417.140786, "fair_value_reference": 438.612526, "structural_low": 360.702697, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.073544, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.020685, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.049842, "worst_return": -0.189431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.06163, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.047716, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.058123, "worst_return": -0.231702, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.007206, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.065025, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.064073, "worst_return": -0.159588, "sufficient": false }, { 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"direction": 18.678729, "energy": 36.224116, "activity_lines": [ 432.947076, 420.402347, 411.285121, 412.160086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 411.93, "volume": 15561184, "typical_volume": 10225519.9, "trend": 420.609409, "fair_value": 438.299279, "relative_strength": -15.637142, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.910574, "energy": 37.222893, "activity_lines": [ 427.910667, 420.30938, 411.800684, 411.443903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 408.19, "volume": 10154675, "typical_volume": 10200526.05, "trend": 417.140786, "fair_value": 438.612526, "relative_strength": -18.509321, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.456978, "energy": 14.783179, "activity_lines": [ 420.003333, 419.239954, 411.904473, 410.642651 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }