{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b34736c9-ee54-4d4a-b74e-6d52af15ded7", "symbol": "XEG", "name": "iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.551, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.796, "architecture_energy": 41.829, "architecture_maturity": 5.805, "architecture_confidence": 69.349, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.27, "rotation_up": 65.49, "upward_expansion": 74.58, "deceleration": 60.1, "rotation_down": 11.75, "downward_expansion": 5.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.751334, 26.058835, 26.054877, 25.817613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.030001, "trend_reference": 25.031817, "distance_from_trend": 0.039877, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.193799, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.430707, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.03858, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.190038, "excess_performance": 0.069616, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039877, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097544, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.430707, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090681, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.050386, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126343, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.190038, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.514032, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9637400, "relative_activity": 1.050374, "balance": 1.514032, "dry_up": 1.152728, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054641, "annualized_volatility": 0.303629, "from_high_reference": -0.092411, "from_low_reference": 0.57877 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.031817, "fair_value_reference": 18.193799, "structural_low": 21.704313, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.03259, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.001104, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.144657, "worst_return": -0.175198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.070595, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.075587, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.314549, "worst_return": -0.092308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.242551, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.079662, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.316761, "worst_return": -0.115106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.646905, "energy": 21.231084, "activity_lines": [ 24.629947, 25.280519, 25.690448, 25.176025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.139999, "volume": 11028100, "typical_volume": 9393060.0, "trend": 24.226362, "fair_value": 17.95254, "relative_strength": 10.186872, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.515979, "energy": 17.025927, "activity_lines": [ 25.077796, 25.340478, 25.733517, 25.31598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.52, "volume": 9883500, "typical_volume": 9149400.0, "trend": 24.520137, "fair_value": 18.03737, "relative_strength": 15.126522, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.145063, "energy": 27.745003, "activity_lines": [ 25.996, 25.650195, 25.895268, 25.528472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.77, "volume": 11757100, "typical_volume": 9240660.0, "trend": 24.798186, "fair_value": 18.122525, "relative_strength": 16.099503, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.554416, "energy": 43.928463, "activity_lines": [ 26.792, 26.01219, 26.064066, 25.738141 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.030001, "volume": 9637400, "typical_volume": 9175210.0, "trend": 25.031817, "fair_value": 18.193799, "relative_strength": 5.03858, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.795577, "energy": 41.828916, "activity_lines": [ 26.751334, 26.058835, 26.054877, 25.817613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }