{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b34ae04a-0cc1-44a7-be0c-61312fbcd319", "symbol": "605388", "name": "Juneyao Grand Healthy DrinksCo.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.742, "architecture_energy": 26.191, "architecture_maturity": 68.675, "architecture_confidence": 95.699, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.84, "rotation_up": 30.31, "upward_expansion": 19.17, "deceleration": 43.19, "rotation_down": 31.24, "downward_expansion": 66.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.563333, 5.351455, 5.724238, 6.024194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.9, "trend_reference": 6.407, "distance_from_trend": -0.079132, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.763749, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.240058, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.763669, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.149856, "excess_performance": -0.106652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079132, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108033, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.240058, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097728, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147637, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013558, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.149856, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.361485, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 164881572, "relative_activity": 2.245369, "balance": 0.361485, "dry_up": 1.27088, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098175, "annualized_volatility": 0.779587, "from_high_reference": -0.369658, "from_low_reference": 0.277056 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.407, "fair_value_reference": 7.763749, "structural_low": 4.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.006278, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.02888, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.184739, "worst_return": -0.359071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.032478, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.050571, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.122449, "worst_return": -0.341569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.06422, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.101434, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.163462, "worst_return": -0.552267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.023698, "energy": 78.586204, "activity_lines": [ 5.034667, 5.397273, 6.02081, 6.312366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.06, "volume": 51302039, "typical_volume": 60410444.8, "trend": 6.634, "fair_value": 7.898549, "relative_strength": -25.321622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.332888, "energy": 79.943099, "activity_lines": [ 5.024, 5.262182, 5.896381, 6.20628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.67, "volume": 51807688, "typical_volume": 61767728.25, "trend": 6.51, "fair_value": 7.849056, "relative_strength": -31.214026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.894384, "energy": 88.8858, "activity_lines": [ 4.903333, 5.094727, 5.743952, 6.07957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.21, "volume": 105301086, "typical_volume": 66255439.55, "trend": 6.458333, "fair_value": 7.808682, "relative_strength": -8.395611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.628019, "energy": 39.849745, "activity_lines": [ 5.328667, 5.247455, 5.747905, 6.060215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.9, "volume": 164881572, "typical_volume": 73431842.65, "trend": 6.407, "fair_value": 7.763749, "relative_strength": -14.763669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.742333, "energy": 26.191266, "activity_lines": [ 5.563333, 5.351455, 5.724238, 6.024194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }