{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b34bd1a7-bf46-4712-8b17-41e61b81f3fd", "symbol": "NCMI", "name": "National CineMedia Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 95.294, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.566, "architecture_energy": 47.896, "architecture_maturity": 16.536, "architecture_confidence": 72.951, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.91, "rotation_up": 60.53, "upward_expansion": 80.23, "deceleration": 54.88, "rotation_down": 16.33, "downward_expansion": 6.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.930667, 3.859455, 3.652102, 3.554116 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.03, "trend_reference": 3.484037, "distance_from_trend": 0.156704, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.652971, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.133887, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.925901, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.146656, "excess_performance": -0.040798, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.156704, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014089, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.133887, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079258, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069259, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.195879, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146656, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.796611, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1518935, "relative_activity": 0.80075, "balance": 1.796611, "dry_up": 0.780208, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088826, "annualized_volatility": 0.570537, "from_high_reference": -0.176795, "from_low_reference": 0.464185 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.484037, "fair_value_reference": 4.652971, "structural_low": 2.752384, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.0125, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.030107, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.251295, "worst_return": -0.209009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022054, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012473, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.266785, "worst_return": -0.170094, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.24299, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.133296, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.262195, "worst_return": -0.135423, "sufficient": false 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"direction": 33.207385, "energy": 56.409157, "activity_lines": [ 3.820667, 3.669676, 3.507046, 3.463777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.77, "volume": 1509983, "typical_volume": 1964956.4, "trend": 3.466377, "fair_value": 4.642842, "relative_strength": -9.234207, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.734065, "energy": 57.627139, "activity_lines": [ 3.824, 3.720909, 3.541624, 3.483197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.01, "volume": 1220517, "typical_volume": 1906329.25, "trend": 3.474383, "fair_value": 4.649039, "relative_strength": -3.260438, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.108275, "energy": 53.679249, "activity_lines": [ 3.882667, 3.797636, 3.597703, 3.51827 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.03, "volume": 1518935, "typical_volume": 1896890.25, "trend": 3.484037, "fair_value": 4.652971, "relative_strength": -6.925901, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.565533, "energy": 47.896033, "activity_lines": [ 3.930667, 3.859455, 3.652102, 3.554116 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }