{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b34cc573-65c8-4649-95ee-1a77768fae07", "symbol": "ZWU", "name": "BMO Covered Call Utilities ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -10.913, "architecture_energy": 11.626, "architecture_maturity": 4.204, "architecture_confidence": 58.727, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.33, "rotation_up": 23.06, "upward_expansion": 45.02, "deceleration": 70.68, "rotation_down": 36.67, "downward_expansion": 34.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.729868, 11.793385, 11.816695, 11.808249 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.45, "trend_reference": 11.721553, "distance_from_trend": -0.023167, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.93221, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.152815, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.200342, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.018189, "excess_performance": -0.102232, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023167, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030812, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.152815, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053217, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102003, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0459, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018189, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.182065, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2482600, "relative_activity": 2.042931, "balance": 1.182065, "dry_up": 1.567953, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022297, "annualized_volatility": 0.119916, "from_high_reference": -0.054405, "from_low_reference": 0.090722 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.721553, "fair_value_reference": 9.93221, "structural_low": 11.20637, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.002329, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.013717, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.039696, "worst_return": -0.08922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018556, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.01829, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.05871, "worst_return": -0.075322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.024944, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00078, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.106224, "worst_return": -0.051323, "sufficient": false }, { 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11.867783, 11.848481, 11.754924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.770761, "volume": 1547300, "typical_volume": 1096175.0, "trend": 11.572455, "fair_value": 9.847843, "relative_strength": -5.949596, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.72479, "energy": 17.310017, "activity_lines": [ 11.838582, 11.853995, 11.841323, 11.770227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.880117, "volume": 1306600, "typical_volume": 1096225.0, "trend": 11.617252, "fair_value": 9.868081, "relative_strength": -4.735372, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.327554, "energy": 17.06051, "activity_lines": [ 11.84175, 11.86121, 11.844172, 11.790077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.069007, "volume": 1653800, "typical_volume": 1111075.0, "trend": 11.663842, "fair_value": 9.890814, "relative_strength": -3.295398, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.608077, "energy": 27.05212, "activity_lines": [ 11.91193, 11.898665, 11.865248, 11.819222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.74, "volume": 2178600, "typical_volume": 1156685.0, "trend": 11.696236, "fair_value": 9.912776, "relative_strength": -5.255781, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.877327, "energy": 11.607729, "activity_lines": [ 11.859922, 11.869662, 11.854188, 11.824136 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.45, "volume": 2482600, "typical_volume": 1215215.0, "trend": 11.721553, "fair_value": 9.93221, "relative_strength": -10.200342, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.913164, "energy": 11.625798, "activity_lines": [ 11.729868, 11.793385, 11.816695, 11.808249 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }