{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b351528d-8e46-4247-9ca7-034fa01d4a1c", "symbol": "9608", "name": "Al Ashghal Al Moysra Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 62.926, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 17.658, "architecture_energy": 33.615, "architecture_maturity": 31.069, "architecture_confidence": 51.299, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.02, "rotation_up": 55.49, "upward_expansion": 40.32, "deceleration": 41.19, "rotation_down": 16.72, "downward_expansion": 46.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.134, 15.408182, 14.963571, 15.461742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.9, "trend_reference": 16.246, "distance_from_trend": 0.040256, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.036075, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.324974, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.892903, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.034286, "excess_performance": -0.002456, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040256, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121458, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.324974, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138378, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138929, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.25661, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034286, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.805842, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56400, "relative_activity": 2.213922, "balance": 0.805842, "dry_up": 2.219732, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068912, "annualized_volatility": 0.441374, "from_high_reference": -0.533149, "from_low_reference": 0.280303 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.246, "fair_value_reference": 25.036075, "structural_low": 13.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.057817, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059561, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-07-26", "close": 27.9, "volume": 596564, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-02", "close": 26.6, "volume": 306046, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.666051, "energy": 14.515055, "activity_lines": [ 15.201333, 14.729818, 14.727905, 15.462021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.95, "volume": 111572, "typical_volume": 22742.3, "trend": 16.346, "fair_value": 25.11283, "relative_strength": -17.910365, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.735452, "energy": 20.545895, "activity_lines": [ 15.558, 14.998545, 14.794381, 15.426 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.9, "volume": 56400, "typical_volume": 25475.15, "trend": 16.246, "fair_value": 25.036075, "relative_strength": -13.892903, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 17.658487, "energy": 33.615186, "activity_lines": [ 16.134, 15.408182, 14.963571, 15.461742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }