{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b352f762-2e8e-4a55-bdee-ba722028558c", "symbol": "ART", "name": "Deodato.Gallery S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.211, "architecture_energy": 89.106, "architecture_maturity": 86.915, "architecture_confidence": 80.639, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 10.83, "upward_expansion": 22.56, "deceleration": 34.17, "rotation_down": 80.92, "downward_expansion": 93.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.207067, 0.215055, 0.221943, 0.224701 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.2, "trend_reference": 0.2316, "distance_from_trend": -0.136442, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.343263, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.417356, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.736355, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.193548, "excess_performance": -0.36444, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.136442, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089623, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.417356, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02399, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.367364, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048727, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.193548, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.220588, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33000, "relative_activity": 1.189189, "balance": 0.220588, "dry_up": 1.027027, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046923, "annualized_volatility": 0.269494, "from_high_reference": -0.494949, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2316, "fair_value_reference": 0.343263, "structural_low": 0.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.010638, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": -0.02836, "regime_survival": 0.947368, "best_return": 0.265306, "worst_return": -0.205479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.031915, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.038099, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.045161, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.175532, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.317315, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.135484, "worst_return": -0.20979, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.06383, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.350903, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.06383, "worst_return": -0.06383, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016484, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.191489, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067708, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.16185, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013793, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.300699, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.544, "volume": 210000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 0.54, "volume": 192000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, 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-74.995184, "energy": 78.976919, "activity_lines": [ 0.213333, 0.219309, 0.224552, 0.226938 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.2, "volume": 33000, "typical_volume": 27750.0, "trend": 0.2316, "fair_value": 0.343263, "relative_strength": -36.736355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.210799, "energy": 89.105528, "activity_lines": [ 0.207067, 0.215055, 0.221943, 0.224701 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }