{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3550899-88b9-43bf-ad53-51761d21eaf0", "symbol": "AGES-B", "name": "AGES Industri AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.455, "architecture_energy": 23.987, "architecture_maturity": 21.332, "architecture_confidence": 63.722, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.1, "rotation_up": 13.85, "upward_expansion": 17.77, "deceleration": 61.27, "rotation_down": 58.13, "downward_expansion": 62.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.193333, 48.681818, 48.672103, 48.609099 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 46.200001, "trend_reference": 49.080659, "distance_from_trend": -0.058692, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 62.87345, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.265191, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.443729, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.11703, "excess_performance": -0.178524, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058692, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036885, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.265191, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013487, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214437, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026861, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.11703, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.360818, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2772, "relative_activity": 1.482472, "balance": 0.360818, "dry_up": 1.711367, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052281, "annualized_volatility": 0.25008, "from_high_reference": -0.263272, "from_low_reference": 0.047791 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.080659, "fair_value_reference": 62.87345, "structural_low": 44.092743, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.000314, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017068, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.223077, "worst_return": -0.131343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.062611, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.140142, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.1875, "worst_return": -0.179104, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.121311, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.179728, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.081183, "worst_return": -0.335821, "sufficient": false 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.296934, "energy": 26.312079, "activity_lines": [ 50.086667, 49.38, 48.919257, 48.984275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.799999, "volume": 671, "typical_volume": 2012.65, "trend": 49.631385, "fair_value": 63.021269, "relative_strength": -15.43965, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.413887, "energy": 19.525787, "activity_lines": [ 49.806666, 49.354545, 48.956156, 48.918845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.0, "volume": 2316, "typical_volume": 1988.95, "trend": 49.369692, "fair_value": 62.953129, "relative_strength": -17.356845, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.116077, "energy": 13.762774, "activity_lines": [ 49.3, 49.176364, 48.903781, 48.813595 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.200001, "volume": 2772, "typical_volume": 1869.85, "trend": 49.080659, "fair_value": 62.87345, "relative_strength": -21.443729, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.455403, "energy": 23.987027, "activity_lines": [ 48.193333, 48.681818, 48.672103, 48.609099 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }