{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b35ec349-fcea-4f83-81dc-6e956bbfc189", "symbol": "RSPU", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR S&P 500 EQL WGT UTILS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.138, "architecture_energy": 14.641, "architecture_maturity": 35.309, "architecture_confidence": 59.197, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.12, "rotation_up": 23.8, "upward_expansion": 22.47, "deceleration": 61.53, "rotation_down": 46.03, "downward_expansion": 31.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.525333, 80.173316, 80.006405, 80.147282 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 77.6, "trend_reference": 79.907123, "distance_from_trend": -0.028873, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.63966, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.182212, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.266617, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.016472, "excess_performance": -0.109153, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028873, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02096, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.182212, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050897, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112666, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029998, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016472, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.015629, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 228019, "relative_activity": 1.000576, "balance": 1.015629, "dry_up": 0.720204, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03483, "annualized_volatility": 0.194847, "from_high_reference": -0.080515, "from_low_reference": 0.091667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 79.907123, "fair_value_reference": 65.63966, "structural_low": 75.746499, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.003718, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.011412, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.073108, "worst_return": -0.056163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.010916, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034968, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.084273, "worst_return": -0.09314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.00044, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.021678, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.173437, "worst_return": -0.060776, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 80.6, "volume": 136654, "typical_volume": 226459.8, "trend": 79.3943, "fair_value": 65.096289, "relative_strength": -4.697563, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.316584, "energy": 35.416003, "activity_lines": [ 81.177542, 80.454121, 80.221166, 80.148902 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 82.33, "volume": 198293, "typical_volume": 227251.05, "trend": 79.662089, "fair_value": 65.285514, "relative_strength": -2.010651, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.802578, "energy": 45.303952, "activity_lines": [ 81.597333, 80.917288, 80.404626, 80.338302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 78.89, "volume": 93537, "typical_volume": 226305.65, "trend": 79.788724, "fair_value": 65.467732, "relative_strength": -6.895895, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.599348, "energy": 8.208073, "activity_lines": [ 80.65, 80.653687, 80.258537, 80.28849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.6, "volume": 228019, "typical_volume": 227887.8, "trend": 79.907123, "fair_value": 65.63966, "relative_strength": -11.266617, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.137932, "energy": 14.640977, "activity_lines": [ 79.525333, 80.173316, 80.006405, 80.147282 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }