{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3666029-d9ad-4889-89e0-ec6a431a4714", "symbol": "2201", "name": "Yulon Motor Company Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.061, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.122, "architecture_energy": 8.844, "architecture_maturity": 22.767, "architecture_confidence": 56.307, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.11, "rotation_up": 23.01, "upward_expansion": 18.22, "deceleration": 54.63, "rotation_down": 33.17, "downward_expansion": 56.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.056667, 28.103636, 27.897143, 27.941828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.65, "trend_reference": 28.413333, "distance_from_trend": 0.008329, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.998906, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.403111, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -35.578976, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.069805, "excess_performance": -0.511177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008329, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07973, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.403111, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079794, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.35579, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093517, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069805, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.786091, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13039816, "relative_activity": 0.886415, "balance": 1.786091, "dry_up": 0.87735, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054907, "annualized_volatility": 0.220275, "from_high_reference": -0.3391, "from_low_reference": 0.095602 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.413333, "fair_value_reference": 47.998906, "structural_low": 26.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.035065, "positive_rate": 0.210526, "directional_follow_through": 0.210526, "median_excess_return": -0.032697, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.154734, "worst_return": -0.091398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.04067, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.126473, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.06767, "worst_return": -0.228169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.156303, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.272945, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.07353, "worst_return": -0.326126, 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27.945454, 27.682381, 28.207419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.799999, "volume": 13489644, "typical_volume": 15644390.45, "trend": 29.24, "fair_value": 49.211782, "relative_strength": -34.30914, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.410954, "energy": 8.120983, "activity_lines": [ 28.393333, 28.134545, 27.778095, 28.169462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.9, "volume": 9001290, "typical_volume": 14800316.8, "trend": 28.893333, "fair_value": 48.883322, "relative_strength": -36.9407, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.726126, "energy": 12.636933, "activity_lines": [ 28.296666, 28.140909, 27.797381, 28.083011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.0, "volume": 15565454, "typical_volume": 14683253.45, "trend": 28.688333, "fair_value": 48.603564, "relative_strength": -35.009179, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.857891, "energy": 8.987532, "activity_lines": [ 28.246667, 28.147273, 27.833095, 28.025376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.25, "volume": 14019314, "typical_volume": 14702735.3, "trend": 28.506667, "fair_value": 48.294078, "relative_strength": -37.435558, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.087678, "energy": 14.632686, "activity_lines": [ 27.866667, 27.996363, 27.796667, 27.932581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 28.65, "volume": 13039816, "typical_volume": 14710738.95, "trend": 28.413333, "fair_value": 47.998906, "relative_strength": -35.578976, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.12181, "energy": 8.843747, "activity_lines": [ 28.056667, 28.103636, 27.897143, 27.941828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }