{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3683d5d-c23b-48b9-877d-93af0f580463", "symbol": "252420", "name": "KB KBSTAR 200 Futures Inverse 2X Securities ETF Investment Trust - Equity-Derivatives", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.296, "architecture_energy": 40.541, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.886, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.72, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 25.24, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 29.06, "downward_expansion": 59.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.333333, 92.345455, 103.77619, 139.273118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 103.0, "trend_reference": 199.4, "distance_from_trend": -0.48345, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1643.615385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.937333, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -86.74964, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.734536, "excess_performance": -0.964365, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.48345, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.498701, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.937333, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005616, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.867496, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066979, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.734536, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.710535, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14757162, "relative_activity": 1.150447, "balance": 0.710535, "dry_up": 1.448452, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.242718, "annualized_volatility": 0.964094, "from_high_reference": -0.926429, "from_low_reference": 0.688525 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 199.4, "fair_value_reference": 1643.615385, "structural_low": 61.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.04539, "positive_rate": 0.264706, "directional_follow_through": 0.735294, "median_excess_return": -0.066053, "regime_survival": 0.911765, "best_return": 0.144444, "worst_return": -0.401015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.129952, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.195273, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.240977, "worst_return": -0.63354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.092727, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.100712, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.141487, "worst_return": -0.839456, "sufficient": true }, 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"typical_volume": 12827326.75, "trend": 199.4, "fair_value": 1643.615385, "relative_strength": -86.74964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.296248, "energy": 40.541081, "activity_lines": [ 99.333333, 92.345455, 103.77619, 139.273118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }