{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b36cb2e4-7021-42b6-9639-f9fc38d551fe", "symbol": "DESK3", "name": "Desktop S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.948, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.37, "architecture_energy": 71.769, "architecture_maturity": 12.957, "architecture_confidence": 84.549, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.23, "rotation_up": 76.02, "upward_expansion": 92.8, "deceleration": 40.95, "rotation_down": 12.69, "downward_expansion": 14.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.384, 18.138909, 18.039373, 17.655296 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 18.65, "trend_reference": 17.157933, "distance_from_trend": 0.086961, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.587406, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.372595, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 17.332282, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.165528, "excess_performance": 0.222577, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086961, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035907, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.372595, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023047, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.173323, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027195, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.165528, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.532415, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1449800, "relative_activity": 0.601368, "balance": 1.532415, "dry_up": 0.61488, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028707, "annualized_volatility": 0.440471, "from_high_reference": -0.02814, "from_low_reference": 1.501383 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.157933, "fair_value_reference": 13.587406, "structural_low": 12.110729, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.015807, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.008488, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.27087, "worst_return": -0.129904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.043777, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.011234, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.386483, "worst_return": -0.349051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.191031, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.056738, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.430634, "worst_return": -0.281271, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.481106, "energy": 29.35079, "activity_lines": [ 17.780667, 17.787637, 17.725275, 17.329544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.889999, "volume": 818600, "typical_volume": 2877500.0, "trend": 17.036763, "fair_value": 13.50936, "relative_strength": 15.083106, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.564875, "energy": 40.243103, "activity_lines": [ 17.831333, 17.801818, 17.79406, 17.387537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.139999, "volume": 2073800, "typical_volume": 2646395.0, "trend": 17.071474, "fair_value": 13.535406, "relative_strength": 15.392996, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.236495, "energy": 45.516544, "activity_lines": [ 17.960666, 17.868364, 17.86436, 17.458714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.6, "volume": 1587300, "typical_volume": 2539050.0, "trend": 17.131494, "fair_value": 13.564401, "relative_strength": 14.622291, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.632709, "energy": 66.812971, "activity_lines": [ 18.194, 18.010909, 17.960494, 17.557328 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.65, "volume": 1449800, "typical_volume": 2410835.0, "trend": 17.157933, "fair_value": 13.587406, "relative_strength": 17.332282, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.36982, "energy": 71.769228, "activity_lines": [ 18.384, 18.138909, 18.039373, 17.655296 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }