{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b37608a3-1ea3-4234-8edc-bda41ac7e01b", "symbol": "601916", "name": "China Zheshang Bank Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 57.305, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.978, "architecture_energy": 22.844, "architecture_maturity": 85.679, "architecture_confidence": 54.812, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.61, "rotation_up": 39.38, "upward_expansion": 19.57, "deceleration": 44.12, "rotation_down": 23.03, "downward_expansion": 55.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.906667, 2.863668, 2.86687, 2.893649 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.9, "trend_reference": 2.924814, "distance_from_trend": -0.008484, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.784565, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041455, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.879175, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.003436, "excess_performance": 0.039767, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008484, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022191, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.041455, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005903, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028792, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130165, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003436, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.399241, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 896056850, "relative_activity": 1.797795, "balance": 1.399241, "dry_up": 1.713584, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036128, "annualized_volatility": 0.183998, "from_high_reference": -0.171429, "from_low_reference": 0.078067 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.924814, "fair_value_reference": 2.784565, "structural_low": 2.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.485714, "median_excess_return": -0.001875, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.169961, "worst_return": -0.074534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.001139, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030589, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.163424, "worst_return": -0.156442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.073864, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.071367, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.191235, "worst_return": -0.095092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.45809, "energy": 71.476648, "activity_lines": [ 2.773933, 2.815313, 2.858076, 2.89342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.87, "volume": 767507825, "typical_volume": 492616462.1, "trend": 2.930148, "fair_value": 2.776442, "relative_strength": -1.661038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.054198, "energy": 52.406884, "activity_lines": [ 2.803333, 2.821202, 2.854388, 2.889109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.03, "volume": 902473667, "typical_volume": 492400074.1, "trend": 2.929481, "fair_value": 2.780833, "relative_strength": 3.766347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.744921, "energy": 9.964291, "activity_lines": [ 2.885333, 2.855981, 2.866653, 2.895551 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.9, "volume": 896056850, "typical_volume": 498420030.75, "trend": 2.924814, "fair_value": 2.784565, "relative_strength": -2.879175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.978313, "energy": 22.843753, "activity_lines": [ 2.906667, 2.863668, 2.86687, 2.893649 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }