{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b37b1e26-5f18-4dee-8d56-6454e31c4d43", "symbol": "SCANA", "name": "Scana ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 67.791, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.254, "architecture_energy": 9.52, "architecture_maturity": 5.773, "architecture_confidence": 45.529, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.36, "rotation_up": 27.24, "upward_expansion": 20.39, "deceleration": 61.34, "rotation_down": 41.22, "downward_expansion": 36.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.443667, 1.441455, 1.46281, 1.464976 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.455, "trend_reference": 1.463367, "distance_from_trend": -0.005717, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.014776, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.277835, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.587253, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.026104, "excess_performance": -0.151098, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005717, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003658, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.277835, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015069, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135873, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004118, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026104, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.545722, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 745189, "relative_activity": 0.685592, "balance": 0.545722, "dry_up": 0.633356, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056569, "annualized_volatility": 0.288041, "from_high_reference": -0.265152, "from_low_reference": 0.103945 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.463367, "fair_value_reference": 2.014776, "structural_low": 1.344, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.021077, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.033201, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.477273, "worst_return": -0.14218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003379, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.056232, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.390625, "worst_return": -0.157258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.025774, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.063704, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.294643, "worst_return": -0.265753, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.013164, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058336, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.316651, "worst_return": -0.290322, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095344, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03506, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01573, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.156818, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080844, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.136667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.355469, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081472, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138006, 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after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.464681, "energy": 22.098501, "activity_lines": [ 1.437667, 1.466545, 1.473229, 1.470791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.395, "volume": 561040, "typical_volume": 1305213.8, "trend": 1.458033, "fair_value": 2.024991, "relative_strength": -15.370793, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.486323, "energy": 38.361877, "activity_lines": [ 1.419667, 1.449091, 1.466076, 1.466778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.4, "volume": 705073, "typical_volume": 1262294.45, "trend": 1.459033, "fair_value": 2.021255, "relative_strength": -16.751682, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.307672, "energy": 43.714284, "activity_lines": [ 1.409, 1.434727, 1.460005, 1.463034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.495, "volume": 742347, "typical_volume": 1160547.45, "trend": 1.460867, "fair_value": 2.018222, "relative_strength": -11.236533, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.196874, "energy": 18.394452, "activity_lines": [ 1.434, 1.441, 1.463543, 1.465355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.455, "volume": 745189, "typical_volume": 1086927.8, "trend": 1.463367, "fair_value": 2.014776, "relative_strength": -13.587253, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.254031, "energy": 9.519927, "activity_lines": [ 1.443667, 1.441455, 1.46281, 1.464976 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }