{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3800a29-b58d-4a7f-9889-91cc6d72140f", "symbol": "XLSR", "name": "STATE STREET US SECTOR ROTATION ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.655, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.825, "architecture_energy": 37.874, "architecture_maturity": 32.339, "architecture_confidence": 45.787, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.19, "rotation_up": 42.59, "upward_expansion": 68.37, "deceleration": 68.84, "rotation_down": 24.69, "downward_expansion": 8.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.954767, 64.671964, 64.446222, 63.531877 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 66.6641, "trend_reference": 62.616299, "distance_from_trend": 0.064645, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.309421, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.250513, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.515977, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.074642, "excess_performance": -0.050983, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064645, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014829, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.250513, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011502, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03516, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015042, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074642, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.105099, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 207459, "relative_activity": 0.688288, "balance": 1.105099, "dry_up": 0.780618, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027698, "annualized_volatility": 0.154436, "from_high_reference": -0.006866, "from_low_reference": 0.196735 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.616299, "fair_value_reference": 53.309421, "structural_low": 55.705, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00453, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.002498, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.06457, "worst_return": -0.049156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036113, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.010372, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.115404, "worst_return": -0.131962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.058967, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.025616, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130069, "worst_return": 0.020534, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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{ "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08164, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010391, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061961, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.122318, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037445, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 64.0, "volume": 314385, "typical_volume": 344201.1, "trend": 62.395054, "fair_value": 52.887204, "relative_strength": -3.810251, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.976134, "energy": 22.063756, "activity_lines": [ 64.372093, 64.571211, 63.868755, 63.06669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 63.71, "volume": 197200, "typical_volume": 338764.05, "trend": 62.422377, "fair_value": 53.016105, "relative_strength": -3.627922, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.951881, "energy": 22.854134, "activity_lines": [ 64.136867, 64.373506, 63.974423, 63.151525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.14, "volume": 222111, "typical_volume": 309460.3, "trend": 62.486259, "fair_value": 53.154044, "relative_strength": -3.964303, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.325952, "energy": 20.934231, "activity_lines": [ 64.163467, 64.282302, 64.102549, 63.262339 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.6641, "volume": 207459, "typical_volume": 301413.25, "trend": 62.616299, "fair_value": 53.309421, "relative_strength": -3.515977, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.825223, "energy": 37.873972, "activity_lines": [ 64.954767, 64.671964, 64.446222, 63.531877 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }