{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b383f7d2-67ad-408b-86d2-841f5d217d8e", "symbol": "600977", "name": "China Film Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.282, "architecture_energy": 63.415, "architecture_maturity": 47.898, "architecture_confidence": 82.386, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.02, "rotation_up": 10.91, "upward_expansion": 13.37, "deceleration": 38.72, "rotation_down": 65.59, "downward_expansion": 84.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.48765, 12.847388, 13.369968, 13.703076 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.61, "trend_reference": 14.390556, "distance_from_trend": -0.123731, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.727817, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.009257, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.071062, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.291175, "excess_performance": -0.247971, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123731, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07589, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.009257, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081267, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150711, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034829, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.291175, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.649327, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 201189839, "relative_activity": 1.261069, "balance": 1.649327, "dry_up": 1.3815, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091042, "annualized_volatility": 0.446182, "from_high_reference": -0.455292, "from_low_reference": 0.071365 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.390556, "fair_value_reference": 12.727817, "structural_low": 11.770032, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.025714, "positive_rate": 0.678571, "directional_follow_through": 0.321429, "median_excess_return": 0.004021, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.254694, "worst_return": -0.114823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.030978, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.001245, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.318227, "worst_return": -0.129818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.061994, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.026467, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.546798, "worst_return": -0.082397, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 12.771036, "relative_strength": -15.297987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.897828, "energy": 60.340862, "activity_lines": [ 13.117529, 13.494298, 13.743016, 14.130968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.08, "volume": 164028605, "typical_volume": 150307154.05, "trend": 14.593223, "fair_value": 12.759694, "relative_strength": -16.414163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.470214, "energy": 60.161232, "activity_lines": [ 12.716084, 13.17854, 13.581175, 13.959685 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.5, "volume": 212094212, "typical_volume": 154768077.85, "trend": 14.494223, "fair_value": 12.744069, "relative_strength": -13.729519, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.844192, "energy": 61.569051, "activity_lines": [ 12.572955, 12.982055, 13.468095, 13.824638 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.61, "volume": 201189839, "typical_volume": 159539154.2, "trend": 14.390556, "fair_value": 12.727817, "relative_strength": -15.071062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.282414, "energy": 63.415156, "activity_lines": [ 12.48765, 12.847388, 13.369968, 13.703076 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }