{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b390aec5-92c1-435b-a70a-70e8a0e6c3cc", "symbol": "PMIF", "name": "PIMCO Monthly Income ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 66.958, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.192, "architecture_energy": 65.954, "architecture_maturity": 4.633, "architecture_confidence": 83.302, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.43, "rotation_up": 11.82, "upward_expansion": 17.06, "deceleration": 34.41, "rotation_down": 69.79, "downward_expansion": 88.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.768342, 17.831359, 17.869326, 17.893719 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.799999, "trend_reference": 17.941904, "distance_from_trend": -0.007909, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.738698, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.063404, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.605596, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.015866, "excess_performance": -0.136287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007909, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001056, "read": "Falling" 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17.649729, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.00061, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.000302, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.025502, "worst_return": -0.026592, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009873, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.014971, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.052987, "worst_return": -0.051339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.018534, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.039478, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.059788, "worst_return": -0.041972, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 17.860048, "volume": 946700, "typical_volume": 786715.0, "trend": 17.968489, "fair_value": 16.688808, "relative_strength": -9.747681, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.095265, "energy": 16.22495, "activity_lines": [ 17.91051, 17.918747, 17.914685, 17.937031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.674999, "volume": 815200, "typical_volume": 779545.0, "trend": 17.958215, "fair_value": 16.704928, "relative_strength": -10.56281, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.727968, "energy": 60.967025, "activity_lines": [ 17.825561, 17.876861, 17.892518, 17.918097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.73, "volume": 750100, "typical_volume": 768450.0, "trend": 17.949629, "fair_value": 16.721346, "relative_strength": -9.493783, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.068768, "energy": 67.51583, "activity_lines": [ 17.776307, 17.846686, 17.877299, 17.903373 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.799999, "volume": 923700, "typical_volume": 761895.0, "trend": 17.941904, "fair_value": 16.738698, "relative_strength": -11.605596, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.192392, "energy": 65.954378, "activity_lines": [ 17.768342, 17.831359, 17.869326, 17.893719 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }