{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b39242af-28f4-4432-b8f8-d187432d36ea", "symbol": "RYAN", "name": "Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.328, "architecture_energy": 55.528, "architecture_maturity": 19.471, "architecture_confidence": 55.441, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.8, "rotation_up": 71.91, "upward_expansion": 62.99, "deceleration": 22.1, "rotation_down": 18.15, "downward_expansion": 18.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.696, 41.282, 38.168386, 37.511254 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 42.84, "trend_reference": 38.30508, "distance_from_trend": 0.11839, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 53.5868, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.200549, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.07013, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.091737, "excess_performance": -0.217362, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.11839, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112706, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.200549, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.221746, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160701, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.312593, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091737, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.311027, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13341278, "relative_activity": 1.132418, "balance": 2.311027, "dry_up": 0.982697, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087795, "annualized_volatility": 0.513207, "from_high_reference": -0.291543, "from_low_reference": 0.469151 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.30508, "fair_value_reference": 53.5868, "structural_low": 29.159697, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.050941, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.027255, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.060134, "worst_return": 0.041748, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.044469, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.01294, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.044469, "worst_return": 0.044469, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.217685, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.111572, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.217685, "worst_return": 0.217685, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 8200560, "typical_volume": 11256152.3, "trend": 38.7603, "fair_value": 53.576415, "relative_strength": -16.121472, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.951165, "energy": 61.102118, "activity_lines": [ 41.386667, 39.226727, 36.665926, 36.886618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.16, "volume": 16836038, "typical_volume": 11684687.15, "trend": 38.557834, "fair_value": 53.589958, "relative_strength": -11.384462, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.805535, "energy": 64.989728, "activity_lines": [ 42.437333, 40.478727, 37.499367, 37.234985 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.84, "volume": 13341278, "typical_volume": 11781229.25, "trend": 38.30508, "fair_value": 53.5868, "relative_strength": -16.07013, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.328019, "energy": 55.527754, "activity_lines": [ 42.696, 41.282, 38.168386, 37.511254 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }