{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b394709f-afbb-42c3-a8c2-37ecdc9ad564", "symbol": "BRF", "name": "VANECK ETF TR VANECK BRAZIL SMALL-CAP ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.445, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.751, "architecture_energy": 62.812, "architecture_maturity": 14.19, "architecture_confidence": 95.425, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.91, "rotation_up": 18.29, "upward_expansion": 12.52, "deceleration": 41.45, "rotation_down": 64.43, "downward_expansion": 88.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.1123, 16.2803, 16.884482, 17.263646 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.86, "trend_reference": 17.668753, "distance_from_trend": -0.10237, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.511762, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.092907, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.489364, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.153393, "excess_performance": -0.279018, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10237, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006477, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.092907, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.233879, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154894, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.217899, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.153393, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.486625, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50949, "relative_activity": 1.535096, "balance": 0.486625, "dry_up": 0.712011, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054052, "annualized_volatility": 0.314099, "from_high_reference": -0.22407, "from_low_reference": 0.15376 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.668753, "fair_value_reference": 14.511762, "structural_low": 15.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.013547, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": 0.005359, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.232568, "worst_return": -0.110056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.019173, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.039694, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.300533, "worst_return": -0.179994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.054858, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.041883, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.257565, "worst_return": -0.093763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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40.442569, "activity_lines": [ 17.191567, 17.777731, 18.067182, 17.973654 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 16.1696, "volume": 54309, "typical_volume": 42164.35, "trend": 17.638258, "fair_value": 14.490311, "relative_strength": -11.081903, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.861926, "energy": 57.030099, "activity_lines": [ 16.82428, 17.387884, 17.86917, 17.880068 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 16.585, "volume": 11839, "typical_volume": 41231.6, "trend": 17.638023, "fair_value": 14.496549, "relative_strength": -6.521735, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.030988, "energy": 57.574924, "activity_lines": [ 16.676273, 17.138291, 17.721818, 17.812116 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.3, "volume": 5361, "typical_volume": 39128.55, "trend": 17.649821, "fair_value": 14.499952, "relative_strength": -9.958168, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.140852, "energy": 57.529302, "activity_lines": [ 16.496267, 16.897264, 17.557553, 17.725792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.9345, "volume": 17938, "typical_volume": 35610.45, "trend": 17.673898, "fair_value": 14.509593, "relative_strength": -7.718455, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.60975, "energy": 50.746886, "activity_lines": [ 16.616453, 16.822691, 17.465099, 17.679642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.1893, "volume": 14236, "typical_volume": 34222.4, "trend": 17.695803, "fair_value": 14.510914, "relative_strength": -10.396341, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.446545, "energy": 58.078772, "activity_lines": [ 16.461607, 16.648902, 17.313362, 17.583862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.0238, "volume": 8994, "typical_volume": 32378.15, "trend": 17.69693, "fair_value": 14.509181, "relative_strength": -10.797357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.694137, "energy": 60.30836, "activity_lines": [ 16.324313, 16.498035, 17.16163, 17.47599 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.25, "volume": 20346, "typical_volume": 31698.35, "trend": 17.7044, "fair_value": 14.510725, "relative_strength": -10.501289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.333522, "energy": 48.351338, "activity_lines": [ 16.27214, 16.412985, 17.040078, 17.38264 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.86, "volume": 50949, "typical_volume": 33189.45, "trend": 17.668753, "fair_value": 14.511762, "relative_strength": -15.489364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.75114, "energy": 62.811579, "activity_lines": [ 16.1123, 16.2803, 16.884482, 17.263646 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }