{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3a12502-5ed7-4e92-914b-d916b5cd9054", "symbol": "SPCE", "name": "Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 52.98, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.986, "architecture_energy": 17.155, "architecture_maturity": 11.293, "architecture_confidence": 68.52, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.86, "rotation_up": 18.93, "upward_expansion": 14.21, "deceleration": 64.51, "rotation_down": 54.53, "downward_expansion": 43.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.368, 49.146182, 54.094095, 52.825742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 53.619999, "trend_reference": 51.307333, "distance_from_trend": 0.045075, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 225.243076, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.761946, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.918608, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.213122, "excess_performance": 0.267789, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045075, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066851, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.761946, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085757, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089186, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147823, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.213122, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.536955, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 226698, "relative_activity": 2.540017, "balance": 1.536955, "dry_up": 1.528894, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.30894, "annualized_volatility": 1.280086, "from_high_reference": -0.527577, "from_low_reference": 0.383028 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.307333, "fair_value_reference": 225.243076, "structural_low": 38.77, 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54.280172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.540001, "volume": 141576, "typical_volume": 70711.25, "trend": 52.348667, "fair_value": 247.970063, "relative_strength": -26.332233, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.983345, "energy": 23.817242, "activity_lines": [ 47.303333, 56.134545, 55.818809, 53.735613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.700001, "volume": 86894, "typical_volume": 74418.85, "trend": 51.921, "fair_value": 239.863012, "relative_strength": -26.379257, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.010085, "energy": 29.565536, "activity_lines": [ 45.26, 53.036, 54.905905, 53.177634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.27, "volume": 90651, "typical_volume": 78781.95, "trend": 51.423333, "fair_value": 232.004486, "relative_strength": -25.116987, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.614544, "energy": 31.587671, "activity_lines": [ 44.539334, 50.133091, 54.054667, 52.684021 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.619999, "volume": 226698, "typical_volume": 89250.6, "trend": 51.307333, "fair_value": 225.243076, "relative_strength": -8.918608, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.986209, "energy": 17.155171, "activity_lines": [ 47.368, 49.146182, 54.094095, 52.825742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }