{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3a1f2a9-604e-4c8c-ab84-c3e8aca199df", "symbol": "ABLD", "name": "ABL Diagnostics Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.886, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.601, "architecture_energy": 32.286, "architecture_maturity": 52.058, "architecture_confidence": 89.148, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.84, "rotation_up": 19.77, "upward_expansion": 3.31, "deceleration": 52.89, "rotation_down": 47.59, "downward_expansion": 74.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.452, 2.476379, 2.61573, 2.754936 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.48, "trend_reference": 2.961139, "distance_from_trend": -0.162484, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.756192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.478574, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.491413, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.261905, "excess_performance": -0.315216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162484, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069361, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.478574, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07438, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.314914, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123936, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.261905, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.00796, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22359, "relative_activity": 0.537924, "balance": 1.00796, "dry_up": 0.876397, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.201561, "annualized_volatility": 0.818197, "from_high_reference": -0.504, "from_low_reference": 0.220673 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.961139, "fair_value_reference": 4.756192, "structural_low": 2.031666, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.012515, "positive_rate": 0.321429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.010743, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.54717, "worst_return": -0.377778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.068302, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.025283, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.222222, "worst_return": -0.510301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.132076, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.046447, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 2.421384, "worst_return": -0.257008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.62259, "energy": 38.247983, "activity_lines": [ 2.731889, 2.81853, 2.909798, 3.035174 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 2.338333, "volume": 12051, "typical_volume": 42171.4, "trend": 3.125806, "fair_value": 4.995272, "relative_strength": -39.266539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.871087, "energy": 58.815006, "activity_lines": [ 2.549167, 2.735758, 2.84023, 2.982731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.66, "volume": 5087, "typical_volume": 41813.3, "trend": 3.113139, "fair_value": 4.955478, "relative_strength": -30.784701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.24153, "energy": 54.487873, "activity_lines": [ 2.541389, 2.719864, 2.806163, 2.952679 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.52, "volume": 15561, "typical_volume": 41421.9, "trend": 3.093806, "fair_value": 4.914786, "relative_strength": -31.9568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.54531, "energy": 52.548712, "activity_lines": [ 2.528111, 2.675606, 2.763048, 2.914412 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.34, "volume": 27283, "typical_volume": 40905.7, "trend": 3.068472, "fair_value": 4.876434, "relative_strength": -35.656579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.085653, "energy": 49.442925, "activity_lines": [ 2.464444, 2.59497, 2.707933, 2.86578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.5, "volume": 82673, "typical_volume": 44118.45, "trend": 3.048472, "fair_value": 4.836567, "relative_strength": -30.331774, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.116105, "energy": 33.211473, "activity_lines": [ 2.471889, 2.542697, 2.675008, 2.829104 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.42, "volume": 13396, "typical_volume": 41468.2, "trend": 3.001139, "fair_value": 4.796187, "relative_strength": -32.46353, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.514026, "energy": 35.012276, "activity_lines": [ 2.454667, 2.495591, 2.639893, 2.788557 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.48, "volume": 22359, "typical_volume": 41565.35, "trend": 2.961139, "fair_value": 4.756192, "relative_strength": -31.491413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.601212, "energy": 32.286445, "activity_lines": [ 2.452, 2.476379, 2.61573, 2.754936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }