{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3a5d4dc-9bca-47f6-a3d2-975616c8e616", "symbol": "VOS", "name": "Vossloh AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.412, "architecture_energy": 88.016, "architecture_maturity": 36.688, "architecture_confidence": 85.443, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.49, "rotation_up": 9.94, "upward_expansion": 21.4, "deceleration": 37.11, "rotation_down": 79.66, "downward_expansion": 97.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.176667, 61.467272, 64.791176, 67.183574 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 57.900002, "trend_reference": 70.921362, "distance_from_trend": -0.183603, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 57.357536, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.009458, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.44354, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.303828, "excess_performance": -0.478074, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.183603, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04259, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.009458, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.349692, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.374435, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179084, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.303828, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.692239, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.692239, "dry_up": 0.629463, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064501, "annualized_volatility": 0.382343, "from_high_reference": -0.371583, "from_low_reference": 0.030249 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.921362, "fair_value_reference": 57.357536, "structural_low": 56.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.02738, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": 0.000827, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.194074, "worst_return": -0.136842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.051771, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.022004, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.181929, "worst_return": -0.176608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.117166, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.041443, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.771306, "worst_return": -0.14, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.273045, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.16129, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040346, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02738, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003567, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.241535, "energy": 54.28218, "activity_lines": [ 63.913332, 64.948181, 67.5865, 69.793244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.299999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 133.05, "trend": 72.181799, "fair_value": 57.108522, "relative_strength": -35.692128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.177289, "energy": 58.959222, "activity_lines": [ 62.216666, 63.732726, 66.66503, 68.929478 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.799999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 133.05, "trend": 71.579719, "fair_value": 57.235306, "relative_strength": -35.412088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.48896, "energy": 82.814109, "activity_lines": [ 60.713332, 62.591817, 65.745785, 68.066136 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.900002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 133.05, "trend": 70.921362, "fair_value": 57.357536, "relative_strength": -37.44354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.411791, "energy": 88.015843, "activity_lines": [ 59.176667, 61.467272, 64.791176, 67.183574 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }