{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3a7dc65-6b8a-4e98-80f7-3b2aca9716aa", "symbol": "JIM", "name": "Jarvis Securities plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.23, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.347, "architecture_energy": 11.253, "architecture_maturity": 24.383, "architecture_confidence": 48.496, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.67, "rotation_up": 18.77, "upward_expansion": 13.14, "deceleration": 63.48, "rotation_down": 46.3, "downward_expansion": 38.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.081, 0.083091, 0.084026, 0.083001 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.08, "trend_reference": 0.081858, "distance_from_trend": -0.022702, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.343935, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.767398, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -42.812574, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.051235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022702, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.216229, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.767398, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048297, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.428126, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067662, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.178684, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 266530, "relative_activity": 1.47257, "balance": 1.178684, "dry_up": 1.453016, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.181731, "annualized_volatility": 0.393348, "from_high_reference": -0.666667, "from_low_reference": 0.230769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.081858, "fair_value_reference": 0.343935, "structural_low": 0.065, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.003226, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.026339, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.486994, "worst_return": -0.242228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.102987, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.147675, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.265974, "worst_return": -0.250939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.204724, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.24397, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.200127, "worst_return": -0.681117, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.50731, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.184211, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023256, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.195122, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": 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"trend": 0.082775, "fair_value": 0.356686, "relative_strength": -44.679932, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.582131, "energy": 12.636412, "activity_lines": [ 0.083333, 0.085545, 0.084402, 0.083289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.08, "volume": 493497, "typical_volume": 168616.25, "trend": 0.081692, "fair_value": 0.349627, "relative_strength": -44.141322, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.765087, "energy": 12.803351, "activity_lines": [ 0.082, 0.084227, 0.084202, 0.08311 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.08, "volume": 266530, "typical_volume": 180996.5, "trend": 0.081858, "fair_value": 0.343935, "relative_strength": -42.812574, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.346524, "energy": 11.253291, "activity_lines": [ 0.081, 0.083091, 0.084026, 0.083001 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }