{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3a9c71d-21d7-4c00-9682-fd9a336df8ee", "symbol": "003040", "name": "Chutian Dragon Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.174, "architecture_energy": 53.466, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.509, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.99, "rotation_up": 27.84, "upward_expansion": 22.13, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 47.96, "downward_expansion": 74.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.374667, 11.146545, 12.121763, 13.257513 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.1, "trend_reference": 14.890905, "distance_from_trend": -0.120268, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.60153, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.160339, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.061572, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.272076, "excess_performance": -0.279475, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.120268, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151083, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.160339, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100157, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.290616, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082135, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.272076, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.103899, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103626090, "relative_activity": 2.975476, "balance": 1.103899, "dry_up": 2.086235, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075558, "annualized_volatility": 0.389152, "from_high_reference": -0.550414, "from_low_reference": 0.339468 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.890905, "fair_value_reference": 15.60153, "structural_low": 9.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.016759, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.020116, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.64215, "worst_return": -0.171931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.046417, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.051893, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.727933, "worst_return": -0.337145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012774, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.054592, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.631545, "worst_return": -0.413086, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.190988, "energy": 82.423997, "activity_lines": [ 10.262, 10.88636, 12.390158, 13.665854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.13, "volume": 73471662, "typical_volume": 31398249.6, "trend": 15.14305, "fair_value": 15.627981, "relative_strength": -37.494693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.074025, "energy": 67.65741, "activity_lines": [ 10.502667, 10.810913, 12.147968, 13.389323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.1, "volume": 103626090, "typical_volume": 34826728.2, "trend": 14.890905, "fair_value": 15.60153, "relative_strength": -29.061572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.174001, "energy": 53.465909, "activity_lines": [ 11.374667, 11.146545, 12.121763, 13.257513 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }