{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3b01ef8-b6a9-4e2c-8b70-feaddd415fb9", "symbol": "RGLD", "name": "Royal Gold Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.478, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.637, "architecture_energy": 30.039, "architecture_maturity": 54.611, "architecture_confidence": 91.864, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.91, "rotation_up": 29.06, "upward_expansion": 18.71, "deceleration": 43.32, "rotation_down": 36.38, "downward_expansion": 66.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 208.07, 205.644557, 213.497977, 224.269999 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 229.92, "trend_reference": 239.626303, "distance_from_trend": -0.040506, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 163.142529, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.40932, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.322457, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.133326, "excess_performance": -0.32078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040506, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005076, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.40932, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125797, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093225, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03662, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.133326, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.690197, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4112803, "relative_activity": 1.076565, "balance": 0.690197, "dry_up": 0.942839, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075221, "annualized_volatility": 0.50639, "from_high_reference": -0.247883, "from_low_reference": 0.409548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 239.626303, "fair_value_reference": 163.142529, "structural_low": 186.325, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.015319, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.001472, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.122814, "worst_return": -0.119022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.083591, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.001112, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.305156, "worst_return": -0.09796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.220579, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.264959, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.549126, "worst_return": -0.022557, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 196.83, "volume": 3303209, "typical_volume": 4326686.55, "trend": 243.166957, "fair_value": 160.802567, "relative_strength": -22.400609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.336841, "energy": 69.147564, "activity_lines": [ 203.920159, 208.819091, 222.748158, 233.79703 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 189.17, "volume": 3549027, "typical_volume": 4296839.5, "trend": 241.914558, "fair_value": 161.257391, "relative_strength": -22.170715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.164447, "energy": 75.590665, "activity_lines": [ 198.32105, 204.207982, 218.314568, 230.313355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 200.96, "volume": 2946182, "typical_volume": 4213815.45, "trend": 240.866573, "fair_value": 161.808795, "relative_strength": -16.074466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.175718, "energy": 65.760883, "activity_lines": [ 197.846482, 202.634789, 215.528019, 227.671125 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 198.35, "volume": 3799699, "typical_volume": 4211392.75, "trend": 240.12088, "fair_value": 162.375657, "relative_strength": -17.677854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.842316, "energy": 57.55127, "activity_lines": [ 197.392667, 201.074868, 212.866111, 224.928121 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 229.92, "volume": 4112803, "typical_volume": 3820300.85, "trend": 239.626303, "fair_value": 163.142529, "relative_strength": -9.322457, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.63749, "energy": 30.038605, "activity_lines": [ 208.07, 205.644557, 213.497977, 224.269999 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }