{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3b82de6-e19e-4310-b83a-0c169ecf2df4", "symbol": "HPQB34", "name": "HP Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.369, "architecture_energy": 84.717, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.898, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.23, "rotation_up": 80.36, "upward_expansion": 94.01, "deceleration": 42.31, "rotation_down": 10.37, "downward_expansion": 18.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 138.546664, 131.457738, 124.997228, 118.834454 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 151.759995, "trend_reference": 111.99881, "distance_from_trend": 0.355014, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 146.44047, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036326, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.794862, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.492203, "excess_performance": 0.549251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.355014, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001786, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036326, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.293548, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.167949, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.446021, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.492203, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.000176, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6734, "relative_activity": 2.017587, "balance": 7.000176, "dry_up": 1.496712, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07652, "annualized_volatility": 0.461733, "from_high_reference": -0.046763, "from_low_reference": 0.744408 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 111.99881, "fair_value_reference": 146.44047, "structural_low": 86.997975, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.020024, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.009253, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.183262, "worst_return": -0.115636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.065453, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.095472, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.253301, "worst_return": -0.152766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.04138, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.125439, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.225414, "worst_return": -0.341104, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 26.998554, "activity_lines": [ 121.889333, 123.358784, 117.258473, 113.055378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 131.020004, "volume": 2970, "typical_volume": 3014.75, "trend": 110.113541, "fair_value": 146.489228, "relative_strength": -0.959436, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.042361, "energy": 42.005811, "activity_lines": [ 125.185335, 124.785049, 119.124943, 114.411708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 137.619995, "volume": 4551, "typical_volume": 3100.0, "trend": 110.713879, "fair_value": 146.426242, "relative_strength": 2.290851, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.704402, "energy": 63.294809, "activity_lines": [ 130.202666, 126.945094, 121.476371, 116.186317 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 151.759995, "volume": 6734, "typical_volume": 3337.65, "trend": 111.99881, "fair_value": 146.44047, "relative_strength": 16.794862, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.368851, "energy": 84.716609, "activity_lines": [ 138.546664, 131.457738, 124.997228, 118.834454 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }