{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3bc5172-7181-4a5d-88e8-58aa7ad0fab6", "symbol": "WANT", "name": "DIREXION DAILY CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY BULL 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.935, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.128, "architecture_energy": 26.197, "architecture_maturity": 5.708, "architecture_confidence": 90.206, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.5, "rotation_up": 18.39, "upward_expansion": 5.47, "deceleration": 43.96, "rotation_down": 44.55, "downward_expansion": 71.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.738667, 40.96696, 42.207015, 42.337265 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 44.45, "trend_reference": 43.520944, "distance_from_trend": 0.021347, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.792625, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.117041, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.836302, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.061955, "excess_performance": -0.18758, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021347, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063867, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.117041, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109738, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148363, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066354, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061955, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.518321, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 260842, "relative_activity": 1.397187, "balance": 1.518321, "dry_up": 1.016282, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115297, "annualized_volatility": 0.639211, "from_high_reference": -0.221968, "from_low_reference": 0.357633 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.520944, "fair_value_reference": 39.792625, "structural_low": 32.7408, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.067835, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.060861, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.577637, "worst_return": -0.343131, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.170285, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.079511, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.634341, "worst_return": -0.428601, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.048344, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.18586, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.837419, "worst_return": -0.228184, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.066706, "energy": 36.508971, "activity_lines": [ 41.688951, 42.292426, 42.811592, 43.219639 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.26, "volume": 198665, "typical_volume": 168948.5, "trend": 44.189504, "fair_value": 39.653822, "relative_strength": -31.759344, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.280275, "energy": 56.896849, "activity_lines": [ 39.161333, 40.710761, 42.062558, 42.537519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.55, "volume": 244140, "typical_volume": 177905.55, "trend": 43.914425, "fair_value": 39.707052, "relative_strength": -19.866314, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.713318, "energy": 45.337527, "activity_lines": [ 39.308667, 40.434981, 41.953556, 42.302712 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.45, "volume": 260842, "typical_volume": 186690.8, "trend": 43.520944, "fair_value": 39.792625, "relative_strength": -14.836302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.127783, "energy": 26.196674, "activity_lines": [ 40.738667, 40.96696, 42.207015, 42.337265 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }