{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3c95a93-b53e-448e-834f-77accb744a3f", "symbol": "ISWN", "name": "AMPLIFY ETF TRUST AMPLIFY BLACKSWAN ISWN ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.713, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.14, "architecture_energy": 28.634, "architecture_maturity": 36.494, "architecture_confidence": 67.22, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.61, "rotation_up": 46.06, "upward_expansion": 73.42, "deceleration": 58.38, "rotation_down": 24.39, "downward_expansion": 7.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.28888, 22.227183, 22.145217, 22.08888 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.752, "trend_reference": 22.064236, "distance_from_trend": 0.031171, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.289786, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.179484, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.182782, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.019764, "excess_performance": -0.105861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031171, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015134, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.179484, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006698, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061828, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000702, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019764, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.160145, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9690, "relative_activity": 0.870757, "balance": 2.160145, "dry_up": 0.839395, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028342, "annualized_volatility": 0.146934, "from_high_reference": -0.063049, "from_low_reference": 0.129289 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.064236, "fair_value_reference": 19.289786, "structural_low": 20.878518, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001903, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.011837, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.025271, "worst_return": -0.048933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.069487, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.045166, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.027643, "worst_return": -0.111331, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.00028, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.075166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.00028, "worst_return": -0.00028, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 22.159402, 22.128793, 22.050274, 22.038547 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.86, "volume": 6802, "typical_volume": 11555.7, "trend": 22.002891, "fair_value": 19.222199, "relative_strength": -5.976248, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.725426, "energy": 8.968985, "activity_lines": [ 22.045497, 22.09219, 22.044432, 22.030292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.1886, "volume": 13100, "typical_volume": 11709.25, "trend": 22.029585, "fair_value": 19.253509, "relative_strength": -5.449379, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.985719, "energy": 12.974079, "activity_lines": [ 22.073673, 22.110687, 22.069937, 22.042273 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.752, "volume": 9690, "typical_volume": 11128.25, "trend": 22.064236, "fair_value": 19.289786, "relative_strength": -6.182782, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.140482, "energy": 28.634459, "activity_lines": [ 22.28888, 22.227183, 22.145217, 22.08888 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }