{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b3d1020a-3f7f-4323-809f-c05f910e4b2d",
    "symbol": "ITT",
    "name": "ITT Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 74.08,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 52.883,
    "architecture_energy": 30.103,
    "architecture_maturity": 14.486,
    "architecture_confidence": 51.665,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 49.18,
        "rotation_up": 53.54,
        "upward_expansion": 61.98,
        "deceleration": 60.84,
        "rotation_down": 11.57,
        "downward_expansion": 9.98
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        201.144667,
        197.189887,
        197.481369,
        197.457574
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 213.13,
    "trend_reference": 196.518244,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.08453,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 149.653193,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.424159,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 1.144284,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.03449,
    "excess_performance": -0.091135,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.08453,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027289,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.424159,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.036845,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.011443,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.01908,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.03449,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.013848,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 7433312,
      "relative_activity": 1.670966,
      "balance": 1.013848,
      "dry_up": 1.172046,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.061612,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.292577,
      "from_high_reference": -0.074635,
      "from_low_reference": 0.310135
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 196.518244,
      "fair_value_reference": 149.653193,
      "structural_low": 177.640904,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.046585,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": 0.033148,
        "regime_survival": 0.357143,
        "best_return": 0.110313,
        "worst_return": -0.078195,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.031579,
        "positive_rate": 0.444444,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.444444,
        "median_excess_return": 0.054429,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.225716,
        "worst_return": -0.22228,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.09604,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000575,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.324318,
        "worst_return": -0.165665,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.234181,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.090251,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.308283,
        "worst_return": -0.277541,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "start": "2024-05-17",
        "end": "2024-06-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.06522,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": -0.028584,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.030714,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.187942,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.074454,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-12-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.108437,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.090489,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-04-10",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": true
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      },
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      },
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 145.755264,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 146.369453,
        "relative_strength": -7.749646,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 19.918642,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 4382968.6,
        "trend": 193.527055,
        "fair_value": 147.01389,
        "relative_strength": -5.027107,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -12.844677,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 192.51,
        "volume": 4854857,
        "typical_volume": 4431522.9,
        "trend": 194.084777,
        "fair_value": 147.636692,
        "relative_strength": -4.800228,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -11.779299,
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        "activity_lines": [
          192.388,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 195.86,
        "volume": 4100103,
        "typical_volume": 4377369.55,
        "trend": 194.708022,
        "fair_value": 148.275545,
        "relative_strength": -2.64663,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -8.271188,
        "energy": 7.742519,
        "activity_lines": [
          193.398,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 195.98,
        "volume": 4467182,
        "typical_volume": 4329158.45,
        "trend": 195.457432,
        "fair_value": 148.901079,
        "relative_strength": -3.627781,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -4.787915,
        "energy": 6.207727,
        "activity_lines": [
          194.511333,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 213.13,
        "volume": 7433312,
        "typical_volume": 4448513.15,
        "trend": 196.518244,
        "fair_value": 149.653193,
        "relative_strength": 1.144284,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.883395,
        "energy": 30.102636,
        "activity_lines": [
          201.144667,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}