{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b3d2cd01-a946-4bde-917a-38ed2a4dc8ff",
    "symbol": "NB2",
    "name": "Northern Data AG",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -59.748,
    "architecture_energy": 45.033,
    "architecture_maturity": 29.415,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.035,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 25.94,
        "rotation_up": 14.45,
        "upward_expansion": 5.47,
        "deceleration": 49.3,
        "rotation_down": 62.56,
        "downward_expansion": 78.8
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        6.538333,
        6.988273,
        8.938024,
        9.552548
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Stable",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 8.445,
    "trend_reference": 10.410667,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.188813,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 22.559359,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.625654,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -37.659554,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.340234,
    "excess_performance": -0.404874,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.188813,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.166191,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.625654,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.197871,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.376596,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.187311,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.340234,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.653911,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 99717,
      "relative_activity": 0.609549,
      "balance": 2.653911,
      "dry_up": 0.42998,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.355905,
      "annualized_volatility": 1.624293,
      "from_high_reference": -0.632826,
      "from_low_reference": 0.827922
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 10.410667,
      "fair_value_reference": 22.559359,
      "structural_low": 4.62,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 35,
        "median_return": -0.055416,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.029994,
        "regime_survival": 0.885714,
        "best_return": 0.661741,
        "worst_return": -0.493778,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": -0.184033,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.180793,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.242789,
        "worst_return": -0.612661,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.252887,
        "positive_rate": 0.166667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.278737,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 1.372596,
        "worst_return": -0.596886,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.329802,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.383778,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.066346,
        "worst_return": -0.710526,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-08",
        "end": "2024-03-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.098993,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.079365,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.25434,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.252404,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2024-09-06",
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        "return": 0.009174,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2024-10-18",
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        "return": 0.098446,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.605442,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.390642,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 53943,
        "typical_volume": 204177.65,
        "trend": 11.1155,
        "fair_value": 22.789327,
        "relative_strength": -53.591479,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.216532,
        "energy": 66.92848,
        "activity_lines": [
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          10.062667,
          10.453613
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 4.9,
        "volume": 103200,
        "typical_volume": 185104.0,
        "trend": 10.840833,
        "fair_value": 22.698814,
        "relative_strength": -63.856071,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -76.156825,
        "energy": 66.863174,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.542,
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          9.542071,
          10.052613
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 5.2,
        "volume": 24504,
        "typical_volume": 173686.55,
        "trend": 10.555167,
        "fair_value": 22.619968,
        "relative_strength": -61.489316,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -69.865132,
        "energy": 66.985738,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.894,
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          9.07281,
          9.688688
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 8.445,
        "volume": 99717,
        "typical_volume": 163591.4,
        "trend": 10.410667,
        "fair_value": 22.559359,
        "relative_strength": -37.659554,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -59.747795,
        "energy": 45.033307,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.538333,
          6.988273,
          8.938024,
          9.552548
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}