{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3d2f57b-4007-4fed-bda6-d5d6512bd08e", "symbol": "MILL", "name": "Amundi MSCI Millennials UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.142, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.203, "architecture_energy": 69.694, "architecture_maturity": 27.571, "architecture_confidence": 80.036, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.07, "rotation_up": 67.45, "upward_expansion": 87.25, "deceleration": 59.85, "rotation_down": 22.63, "downward_expansion": 11.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.0924, 15.982327, 15.724586, 15.491206 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.459999, "trend_reference": 15.2775, "distance_from_trend": 0.077401, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.37008, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.070912, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.570652, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.100709, "excess_performance": 0.047397, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077401, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007321, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.070912, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07192, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005707, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018121, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100709, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.570716, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5543, "relative_activity": 3.32783, "balance": 2.570716, "dry_up": 1.909014, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017203, "annualized_volatility": 0.131511, "from_high_reference": -0.000971, "from_low_reference": 0.175043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.2775, "fair_value_reference": 15.37008, "structural_low": 14.008, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.02236, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.022725, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.02236, "worst_return": 0.02236, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033475, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038117, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021244, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02236, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-06-21", "close": 14.34, "volume": 306, "typical_volume": 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15.545886, 15.364766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.994, "volume": 3252, "typical_volume": 1388.9, "trend": 15.255267, "fair_value": 15.360261, "relative_strength": -1.159986, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.626793, "energy": 59.174104, "activity_lines": [ 15.9228, 15.863109, 15.615657, 15.413482 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.459999, "volume": 5543, "typical_volume": 1665.65, "trend": 15.2775, "fair_value": 15.37008, "relative_strength": -0.570652, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.203499, "energy": 69.694374, "activity_lines": [ 16.0924, 15.982327, 15.724586, 15.491206 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }