{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3d863ca-c590-4c7c-b1a5-6551cae5846c", "symbol": "002061", "name": "Zhejiang Communications Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.253, "architecture_energy": 20.74, "architecture_maturity": 84.728, "architecture_confidence": 74.821, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.43, "rotation_up": 25.52, "upward_expansion": 18.31, "deceleration": 46.82, "rotation_down": 30.42, "downward_expansion": 56.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.545333, 3.528545, 3.565646, 3.635908 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.51, "trend_reference": 3.734235, "distance_from_trend": -0.060049, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.697261, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.050649, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.241367, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.128083, "excess_performance": -0.135483, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060049, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039284, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.050649, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068328, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122414, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097174, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.128083, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.58328, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108965245, "relative_activity": 1.489251, "balance": 0.58328, "dry_up": 1.306824, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050408, "annualized_volatility": 0.216723, "from_high_reference": -0.195899, "from_low_reference": 0.057229 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.734235, "fair_value_reference": 3.697261, "structural_low": 3.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.01107, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.005248, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.228487, "worst_return": -0.077201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.021918, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.021716, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.311573, "worst_return": -0.09204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.151335, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.010045, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.359465, "worst_return": -0.052239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.711096, "energy": 41.801089, "activity_lines": [ 3.521333, 3.523389, 3.59944, 3.67789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.5, "volume": 96660025, "typical_volume": 82802657.15, "trend": 3.755899, "fair_value": 3.701914, "relative_strength": -10.370419, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.761636, "energy": 29.159157, "activity_lines": [ 3.524, 3.516176, 3.581991, 3.660542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.61, "volume": 96129849, "typical_volume": 76976750.35, "trend": 3.745926, "fair_value": 3.699908, "relative_strength": -5.626289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.696138, "energy": 21.734896, "activity_lines": [ 3.560667, 3.531818, 3.577383, 3.651129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.51, "volume": 108965245, "typical_volume": 73167809.5, "trend": 3.734235, "fair_value": 3.697261, "relative_strength": -12.241367, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.252561, "energy": 20.739563, "activity_lines": [ 3.545333, 3.528545, 3.565646, 3.635908 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }