{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3d96574-b8c6-410e-a484-68cbeedcfb79", "symbol": "STT", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI Europe Communication Services UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.526, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.588, "architecture_energy": 13.864, "architecture_maturity": 39.698, "architecture_confidence": 62.586, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.36, "rotation_up": 29.79, "upward_expansion": 15.06, "deceleration": 42.73, "rotation_down": 28.18, "downward_expansion": 62.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 74.696666, 74.250727, 74.718429, 75.11129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 76.129997, "trend_reference": 75.204, "distance_from_trend": 0.012313, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.778654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091021, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.79325, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.03875, "excess_performance": -0.014561, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012313, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007228, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.091021, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00114, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057932, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014199, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.03875, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.541332, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60203, "relative_activity": 7.016094, "balance": 4.541332, "dry_up": 2.589795, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027665, "annualized_volatility": 0.168313, "from_high_reference": -0.057097, "from_low_reference": 0.086795 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.204, "fair_value_reference": 69.778654, "structural_low": 71.169998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.002545, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017264, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.082562, "worst_return": -0.055721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.037395, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.002891, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.101796, "worst_return": -0.05598, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.062609, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.021628, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.078221, "worst_return": -0.000518, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020677, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023957, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084164, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013163, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01657, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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75.034953, 75.229011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 74.290001, "volume": 10467, "typical_volume": 4699.6, "trend": 75.015, "fair_value": 69.417885, "relative_strength": -4.792475, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.152876, "energy": 49.923081, "activity_lines": [ 73.510666, 74.231818, 74.892, 75.186581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 73.489998, "volume": 8133, "typical_volume": 5079.7, "trend": 75.047333, "fair_value": 69.520064, "relative_strength": -5.90572, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.966488, "energy": 40.748731, "activity_lines": [ 73.522666, 73.990727, 74.698952, 75.088194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.370003, "volume": 10086, "typical_volume": 5578.15, "trend": 75.094667, "fair_value": 69.643077, "relative_strength": -6.014578, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.826566, "energy": 29.285658, "activity_lines": [ 73.843334, 73.923091, 74.615572, 75.044495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.129997, "volume": 60203, "typical_volume": 8580.7, "trend": 75.204, "fair_value": 69.778654, "relative_strength": -5.79325, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.587902, "energy": 13.864136, "activity_lines": [ 74.696666, 74.250727, 74.718429, 75.11129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }