{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3de3b02-7738-419d-b606-53b759929a33", "symbol": "ESVR", "name": "WisdomTree Silver - EUR Daily Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.427, "architecture_energy": 56.506, "architecture_maturity": 39.154, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.21, "rotation_up": 23.27, "upward_expansion": 9.5, "deceleration": 55.3, "rotation_down": 57.4, "downward_expansion": 82.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.182333, 9.298527, 10.096205, 10.678049 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.766, "trend_reference": 11.571033, "distance_from_trend": -0.155996, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.687501, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.460336, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.60474, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.177392, "excess_performance": -0.348284, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.155996, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006207, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.460336, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.557353, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176047, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.393703, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.177392, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.422547, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62710, "relative_activity": 1.16034, "balance": 0.422547, "dry_up": 1.328419, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087942, "annualized_volatility": 0.496867, "from_high_reference": -0.490452, "from_low_reference": 0.630656 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.571033, "fair_value_reference": 6.687501, "structural_low": 8.474, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.020042, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": 0.014686, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.125042, "worst_return": -0.165035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.002916, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.028426, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.152448, "worst_return": -0.140828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002822, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039617, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.245365, "worst_return": -0.134593, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066837, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0496, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033267, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044808, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035081, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", 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"close": 9.224, "volume": 42217, "typical_volume": 86120.35, "trend": 11.8842, "fair_value": 6.56394, "relative_strength": -19.958783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.951712, "energy": 85.968236, "activity_lines": [ 9.499667, 10.125873, 10.856681, 11.378871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.612, "volume": 82059, "typical_volume": 82468.15, "trend": 11.818267, "fair_value": 6.59071, "relative_strength": -24.289652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.940854, "energy": 91.146132, "activity_lines": [ 9.139, 9.744527, 10.587386, 11.167761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.059, "volume": 114292, "typical_volume": 60116.05, "trend": 11.750167, "fair_value": 6.621037, "relative_strength": -20.3918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.755449, "energy": 82.22138, "activity_lines": [ 9.052533, 9.515327, 10.3897, 10.989744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.82, "volume": 28114, "typical_volume": 57750.65, "trend": 11.6671, "fair_value": 6.65069, "relative_strength": -23.17229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.31201, "energy": 78.381691, "activity_lines": [ 8.948867, 9.293891, 10.189095, 10.800701 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.766, "volume": 62710, "typical_volume": 54044.5, "trend": 11.571033, "fair_value": 6.687501, "relative_strength": -17.60474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.427053, "energy": 56.505968, "activity_lines": [ 9.182333, 9.298527, 10.096205, 10.678049 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }