{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3df3f06-4a93-491c-bf30-9ce34295d327", "symbol": "AWI", "name": "Armstrong World Industries Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.2, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 40.176, "architecture_energy": 37.844, "architecture_maturity": 22.103, "architecture_confidence": 75.935, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.18, "rotation_up": 63.61, "upward_expansion": 34.81, "deceleration": 41.49, "rotation_down": 19.53, "downward_expansion": 25.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 171.52085, 165.56254, 163.298524, 165.271026 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 185.52, "trend_reference": 170.282313, "distance_from_trend": 0.089485, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 141.755987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.308728, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.280482, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.060371, "excess_performance": -0.185996, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089485, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04904, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.308728, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105529, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082805, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120173, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060371, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.953753, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2527877, "relative_activity": 1.130665, "balance": 1.953753, "dry_up": 1.374513, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052066, "annualized_volatility": 0.302132, "from_high_reference": -0.095918, "from_low_reference": 0.234496 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 170.282313, "fair_value_reference": 141.755987, "structural_low": 150.28, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.018765, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.017798, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.147894, "worst_return": -0.030955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.096463, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.06488, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.359797, "worst_return": -0.078968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.177633, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.073046, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.686157, "worst_return": -0.147011, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02626, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068811, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005195, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15874, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01457, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": 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"close": 155.686371, "volume": 2439404, "typical_volume": 2282768.35, "trend": 172.512966, "fair_value": 139.87365, "relative_strength": -20.951219, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.811362, "energy": 33.552188, "activity_lines": [ 157.087716, 157.050037, 160.220294, 164.913967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 160.417751, "volume": 2643586, "typical_volume": 2232345.75, "trend": 171.478088, "fair_value": 140.412956, "relative_strength": -17.779706, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.220011, "energy": 28.476627, "activity_lines": [ 157.945949, 157.688442, 159.995465, 164.13363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 174.342384, "volume": 4681368, "typical_volume": 2282474.95, "trend": 170.754657, "fair_value": 141.040731, "relative_strength": -11.152962, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.594237, "energy": 8.97497, "activity_lines": [ 163.276543, 160.763184, 161.13234, 164.318423 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 185.52, "volume": 2527877, "typical_volume": 2235743.3, "trend": 170.282313, "fair_value": 141.755987, "relative_strength": -8.280482, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.175667, "energy": 37.844221, "activity_lines": [ 171.52085, 165.56254, 163.298524, 165.271026 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }