{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3e5c76c-81ac-4dda-aa08-756e983814a0", "symbol": "AUMF", "name": "iShares Edge MSCI Australia Multifactor ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.905, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.024, "architecture_energy": 50.924, "architecture_maturity": 5.333, "architecture_confidence": 66.981, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.51, "rotation_up": 63.2, "upward_expansion": 49.12, "deceleration": 21.87, "rotation_down": 20.9, "downward_expansion": 28.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.895999, 38.558579, 38.300141, 38.316161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 40.099998, "trend_reference": 38.496318, "distance_from_trend": 0.041658, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.946989, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.181253, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.611096, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.043456, "excess_performance": -0.02025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041658, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003929, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.181253, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0363, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016111, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00143, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043456, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.017716, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13742, "relative_activity": 1.025239, "balance": 1.017716, "dry_up": 1.01873, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019532, "annualized_volatility": 0.140648, "from_high_reference": -0.01956, "from_low_reference": 0.109574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.496318, "fair_value_reference": 33.946989, "structural_low": 36.139999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.017388, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.011969, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.013017, "worst_return": -0.059376, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.029086, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.013684, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035559, "worst_return": -0.033044, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.041852, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.013291, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.067517, "worst_return": -0.096875, "sufficient": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -1.435728, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.342427, "energy": 14.052234, "activity_lines": [ 38.034106, 38.06917, 38.029755, 38.193182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.75, "volume": 6848, "typical_volume": 13452.3, "trend": 38.463985, "fair_value": 33.865485, "relative_strength": -1.874647, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.97247, "energy": 3.644487, "activity_lines": [ 38.265333, 38.20082, 38.10271, 38.210612 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.099998, "volume": 13742, "typical_volume": 13403.7, "trend": 38.496318, "fair_value": 33.946989, "relative_strength": -1.611096, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.023936, "energy": 50.923553, "activity_lines": [ 38.895999, 38.558579, 38.300141, 38.316161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }