{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3ec259a-f1cd-4d78-94e8-6463c338bd29", "symbol": "605259", "name": "Lutian Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.071, "architecture_energy": 41.257, "architecture_maturity": 88.85, "architecture_confidence": 91.168, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.59, "rotation_up": 25.9, "upward_expansion": 5.76, "deceleration": 56.54, "rotation_down": 45.19, "downward_expansion": 76.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.824666, 17.913696, 18.33887, 19.090377 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.15, "trend_reference": 20.126909, "distance_from_trend": -0.098222, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.575569, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.032683, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.896052, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.192616, "excess_performance": -0.149412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098222, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061776, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.032683, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079506, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168961, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040618, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.192616, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.282634, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3285576, "relative_activity": 0.491123, "balance": 0.282634, "dry_up": 0.612339, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066072, "annualized_volatility": 0.265515, "from_high_reference": -0.399802, "from_low_reference": 0.101335 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.126909, "fair_value_reference": 17.575569, "structural_low": 16.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.018166, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.000537, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.189015, "worst_return": -0.083208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.07395, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.021706, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.306173, "worst_return": -0.167105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.109453, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.061245, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.393416, "worst_return": -0.247633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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-67.28068, "energy": 50.014705, "activity_lines": [ 17.922666, 18.084465, 18.810117, 19.599822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.99, "volume": 5300332, "typical_volume": 8291089.85, "trend": 20.400243, "fair_value": 17.568897, "relative_strength": -21.090256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.748248, "energy": 53.844694, "activity_lines": [ 17.568, 17.86565, 18.556368, 19.370258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.18, "volume": 3342356, "typical_volume": 7204387.85, "trend": 20.267909, "fair_value": 17.569994, "relative_strength": -15.236375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.815665, "energy": 47.119294, "activity_lines": [ 17.710666, 17.892086, 18.437381, 19.227017 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.15, "volume": 3285576, "typical_volume": 6689926.85, "trend": 20.126909, "fair_value": 17.575569, "relative_strength": -16.896052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.071093, "energy": 41.257368, "activity_lines": [ 17.824666, 17.913696, 18.33887, 19.090377 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }