{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3ed1fcf-cb7a-4415-bb07-aada26523b1e", "symbol": "NVR", "name": "NVR Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.945, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.617, "architecture_energy": 20.831, "architecture_maturity": 23.556, "architecture_confidence": 59.229, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.95, "rotation_up": 16.0, "upward_expansion": 9.85, "deceleration": 58.96, "rotation_down": 42.71, "downward_expansion": 61.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 6349.492, 6442.226545, 6376.177857, 6467.784731 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6390.14, "trend_reference": 6700.146333, "distance_from_trend": -0.046269, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7448.327692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.142071, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.52882, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.202214, "excess_performance": -0.327839, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046269, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04544, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.142071, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053621, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205288, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079405, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.202214, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.007124, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 196252, "relative_activity": 1.441423, "balance": 2.007124, "dry_up": 1.328046, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066395, "annualized_volatility": 0.307174, "from_high_reference": -0.258537, "from_low_reference": 0.16163 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6700.146333, "fair_value_reference": 7448.327692, "structural_low": 5501.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.002716, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.005604, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.126732, "worst_return": -0.159779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.089115, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.025043, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.224322, "worst_return": -0.139239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.083412, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.051095, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.197134, "worst_return": 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"tenure": "Established", "return": -0.107063, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056595, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061118, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122003, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035311, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002689, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", 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6147.05, "volume": 161524, "typical_volume": 133211.5, "trend": 6739.864, "fair_value": 7446.831474, "relative_strength": -21.478512, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.232437, "energy": 23.779118, "activity_lines": [ 6371.574667, 6448.815091, 6375.834905, 6490.34757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6390.14, "volume": 196252, "typical_volume": 136151.55, "trend": 6700.146333, "fair_value": 7448.327692, "relative_strength": -20.52882, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.617231, "energy": 20.830941, "activity_lines": [ 6349.492, 6442.226545, 6376.177857, 6467.784731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }