{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3ef0202-70fe-4419-a2d6-bd76db0d650b", "symbol": "XDEV", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Value UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.937, "architecture_energy": 48.659, "architecture_maturity": 68.026, "architecture_confidence": 88.163, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.12, "rotation_up": 40.31, "upward_expansion": 68.52, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.87, "downward_expansion": 20.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.003333, 71.208727, 69.542762, 66.80157 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 72.040001, "trend_reference": 63.313666, "distance_from_trend": 0.137827, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.36907, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.553622, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.281922, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.256147, "excess_performance": 0.085255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.137827, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114282, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.553622, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058262, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.082819, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043475, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.256147, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.277189, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78738, "relative_activity": 0.67479, "balance": 2.277189, "dry_up": 0.907308, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032236, "annualized_volatility": 0.149803, "from_high_reference": -0.015713, "from_low_reference": 0.583993 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.313666, "fair_value_reference": 46.36907, "structural_low": 53.98, "invalidation": "A 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"green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001236, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068256, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031352, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019887, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007907, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.671318, "energy": 67.008883, "activity_lines": [ 71.887334, 71.174909, 67.296762, 64.509527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 69.449997, "volume": 115008, "typical_volume": 116966.3, "trend": 61.533666, "fair_value": 45.698141, "relative_strength": 9.3889, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.675655, "energy": 59.517501, "activity_lines": [ 71.064666, 71.066181, 67.827571, 65.056881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 71.230003, "volume": 86777, "typical_volume": 116212.35, "trend": 62.162667, "fair_value": 45.919487, "relative_strength": 11.874325, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.703853, "energy": 54.392475, "activity_lines": [ 70.953333, 71.199455, 68.474762, 65.682451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.199997, "volume": 142955, "typical_volume": 117814.0, "trend": 62.731, "fair_value": 46.138141, "relative_strength": 9.057786, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.388004, "energy": 46.679228, "activity_lines": [ 70.583999, 71.052727, 68.95419, 66.200989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.040001, "volume": 78738, "typical_volume": 116685.25, "trend": 63.313666, "fair_value": 46.36907, "relative_strength": 8.281922, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.93728, "energy": 48.659485, "activity_lines": [ 71.003333, 71.208727, 69.542762, 66.80157 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }