{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3f10a92-3e0d-49fa-b489-32c9cdb33bd4", "symbol": "B58", "name": "Banyan Tree Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.47, "architecture_energy": 56.496, "architecture_maturity": 31.184, "architecture_confidence": 92.026, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.82, "rotation_up": 19.0, "upward_expansion": 9.26, "deceleration": 54.61, "rotation_down": 61.98, "downward_expansion": 82.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.55, 0.554727, 0.571667, 0.583957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.55, "trend_reference": 0.6025, "distance_from_trend": -0.087137, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.444533, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.237254, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.261572, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.153846, "excess_performance": -0.308681, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087137, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033422, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.237254, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227499, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242616, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215023, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.153846, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.257948, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65200, "relative_activity": 0.117185, "balance": 0.257948, "dry_up": 0.49916, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036364, "annualized_volatility": 0.204667, "from_high_reference": -0.208633, "from_low_reference": 0.037736 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.6025, "fair_value_reference": 0.444533, "structural_low": 0.535, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.009259, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008983, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.174601, "worst_return": -0.059702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.029061, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.009589, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.11594, "worst_return": -0.112904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.119386, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.075212, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.203391, "worst_return": -0.048387, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095891, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119189, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.578947, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031746, "active": false }, 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"volume": 312400, "typical_volume": 984040.0, "trend": 0.6075, "fair_value": 0.442769, "relative_strength": -25.381676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.095207, "energy": 64.155412, "activity_lines": [ 0.553333, 0.560636, 0.578643, 0.591215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.55, "volume": 412000, "typical_volume": 747820.0, "trend": 0.605, "fair_value": 0.443576, "relative_strength": -23.891555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.819566, "energy": 58.082143, "activity_lines": [ 0.551667, 0.557182, 0.575, 0.587505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.55, "volume": 65200, "typical_volume": 556385.0, "trend": 0.6025, "fair_value": 0.444533, "relative_strength": -24.261572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.469618, "energy": 56.49649, "activity_lines": [ 0.55, 0.554727, 0.571667, 0.583957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }