{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3f2af09-2581-4f4e-be0d-6d12d519fd74", "symbol": "HNSC", "name": "HSBC NASDAQ Global Semiconductor UCITS ETF USD", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.861, "architecture_energy": 29.153, "architecture_maturity": 72.83, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.36, "rotation_up": 18.72, "upward_expansion": 54.29, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 36.43, "downward_expansion": 20.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.224334, 36.873273, 36.183714, 33.673914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 35.615002, "trend_reference": 30.365667, "distance_from_trend": 0.172871, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.684077, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.13467, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 23.690823, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.544784, "excess_performance": 0.373893, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.172871, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.248385, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.13467, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24558, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.236908, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.323296, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.544784, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.308726, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43078, "relative_activity": 0.347037, "balance": 3.308726, "dry_up": 0.652126, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092582, "annualized_volatility": 0.411082, "from_high_reference": -0.167874, "from_low_reference": 1.450461 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.365667, "fair_value_reference": 16.684077, "structural_low": 21.485001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.316205, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.258759, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.316205, "worst_return": 0.316205, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.748134, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.590457, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.748134, "worst_return": 0.748134, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043386, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098337, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180938, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.287311, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043797, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.491552, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.20224, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.199765, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061866, "active": true } ], "chart_path": 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"2026-08-07", "close": 35.615002, "volume": 43078, "typical_volume": 124130.9, "trend": 30.365667, "fair_value": 16.684077, "relative_strength": 23.690823, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.86098, "energy": 29.153092, "activity_lines": [ 35.224334, 36.873273, 36.183714, 33.673914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }