{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3f38dd6-79f6-4b0d-bc28-3352babf6cf4", "symbol": "JQC", "name": "Nuveen Credit Strategies Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.397, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.666, "architecture_energy": 35.181, "architecture_maturity": 29.217, "architecture_confidence": 67.344, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.34, "rotation_up": 46.52, "upward_expansion": 75.91, "deceleration": 55.92, "rotation_down": 20.06, "downward_expansion": 4.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.773373, 4.765712, 4.753484, 4.737921 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.81, "trend_reference": 4.737917, "distance_from_trend": 0.015214, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.489486, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.071392, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.888685, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.009095, "excess_performance": -0.11653, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015214, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00358, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.071392, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014649, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098887, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012261, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009095, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.735878, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2734936, "relative_activity": 0.876154, "balance": 0.735878, "dry_up": 0.887792, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015663, "annualized_volatility": 0.113658, "from_high_reference": -0.043437, "from_low_reference": 0.073646 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.737917, "fair_value_reference": 4.489486, "structural_low": 4.48006, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.004253, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.002171, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.060501, "worst_return": -0.088929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.016227, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.00618, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.069277, "worst_return": -0.02949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.046396, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.003981, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.105691, "worst_return": -0.138605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.032668, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.0731, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.170188, "worst_return": -0.121851, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023594, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072173, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037191, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017275, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009737, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035945, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00198, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007984, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032688, 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4.74072, 4.731655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.76, "volume": 2298444, "typical_volume": 3188271.95, "trend": 4.737, "fair_value": 4.481782, "relative_strength": -8.106415, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.177375, "energy": 11.909473, "activity_lines": [ 4.756773, 4.755806, 4.74518, 4.733212 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.81, "volume": 2734936, "typical_volume": 3121523.6, "trend": 4.737917, "fair_value": 4.489486, "relative_strength": -9.888685, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.665965, "energy": 35.181452, "activity_lines": [ 4.773373, 4.765712, 4.753484, 4.737921 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }