{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b3f7b0ed-19a3-4399-9f38-e4ddd4699a81", "symbol": "600758", "name": "LIAONING ENERGY INDUSTRY Co.,LTD", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.08, "architecture_energy": 38.955, "architecture_maturity": 34.193, "architecture_confidence": 70.708, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.76, "rotation_up": 21.52, "upward_expansion": 9.55, "deceleration": 59.12, "rotation_down": 48.66, "downward_expansion": 71.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.275333, 3.292, 3.637619, 3.79071 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.52, "trend_reference": 3.908667, "distance_from_trend": -0.099437, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.63703, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.032177, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.823466, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.11335, "excess_performance": -0.070146, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099437, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040975, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.032177, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123686, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098235, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030383, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.11335, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.751563, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 344198826, "relative_activity": 0.835988, "balance": 3.751563, "dry_up": 0.773789, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157998, "annualized_volatility": 0.715409, "from_high_reference": -0.440382, "from_low_reference": 0.222222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.908667, "fair_value_reference": 3.63703, "structural_low": 2.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.004819, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.010872, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.141304, "worst_return": -0.095506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.101235, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.02396, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.291667, "worst_return": -0.240409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.113832, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.066515, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.19571, "worst_return": -0.132992, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.169054, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007326, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132275, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017115, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.14, "volume": 445482989, "typical_volume": 415951395.15, "trend": 3.930667, "fair_value": 3.651022, "relative_strength": -17.688857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.75458, "energy": 75.117867, "activity_lines": [ 3.095333, 3.391818, 3.744286, 3.859957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.25, "volume": 235801759, "typical_volume": 416186427.4, "trend": 3.912667, "fair_value": 3.642786, "relative_strength": -14.72818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.541977, "energy": 57.382976, "activity_lines": [ 3.143333, 3.304545, 3.67581, 3.816043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.52, "volume": 344198826, "typical_volume": 411726908.7, "trend": 3.908667, "fair_value": 3.63703, "relative_strength": -9.823466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.079893, "energy": 38.955444, "activity_lines": [ 3.275333, 3.292, 3.637619, 3.79071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }